The BTC drop is here. Unfortunately, it came down without sweeping the liquidity at the equal highs, so I missed the move…
For the past few days, I’ve been reminding everyone that a drop was about to begin, and that it could be a move of 5,000–10,000 points or more. My initial thought was that it would be best if price could sweep the equal highs at 87,300, since there was liquidity there and it could form a double bearish divergence. Unfortunately, I predicted the drop but didn’t anticipate the false breakout above the equal highs. That didn’t go according to plan, so I never got an entry on the short at 87,400. I missed the move, and I’m not feeling great about it. I should have built my position in stages instead of waiting for 87,400 the whole time…
So, what happens next? Since price has chosen to move down, I think it will first head toward the low at 82,500. It may not revisit the equal highs anytime soon. And, just as I said at the beginning, we’ve formed an M top. The current structure no longer offers a bullish opportunity; the broader direction is a pullback, so any rebound is a chance to short. I think the wave-two correction is about to officially begin. If you want to go long, the only opportunity is to wait for price to break below 82,500 and see whether it can reclaim that level strongly, or look for a bullish divergence at the lows. If either appears, you could take a short-term long; otherwise, there’s no opportunity to go long.
For the past few days, I’ve been reminding everyone that a drop was about to begin, and that it could be a move of 5,000–10,000 points or more. My initial thought was that it would be best if price could sweep the equal highs at 87,300, since there was liquidity there and it could form a double bearish divergence. Unfortunately, I predicted the drop but didn’t anticipate the false breakout above the equal highs. That didn’t go according to plan, so I never got an entry on the short at 87,400. I missed the move, and I’m not feeling great about it. I should have built my position in stages instead of waiting for 87,400 the whole time…
So, what happens next? Since price has chosen to move down, I think it will first head toward the low at 82,500. It may not revisit the equal highs anytime soon. And, just as I said at the beginning, we’ve formed an M top. The current structure no longer offers a bullish opportunity; the broader direction is a pullback, so any rebound is a chance to short. I think the wave-two correction is about to officially begin. If you want to go long, the only opportunity is to wait for price to break below 82,500 and see whether it can reclaim that level strongly, or look for a bullish divergence at the lows. If either appears, you could take a short-term long; otherwise, there’s no opportunity to go long.