#比特币三度受阻8.7万美元
Everyone’s first reaction to this news was that the government was about to dump its Bitcoin... But the 833 Bitcoin moved this time amount to less than 0.3% of its own holdings.
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On Tuesday, wallets associated with the U.S. Marshals Service moved Bitcoin for the first time since August 26, transferring a total of 833.6 BTC worth just over $71 million. The coins came from two cases: the 2016 hack of an exchange and a fraud scheme involving fake cloud mining. On the same day, the same batch of wallets also moved $31.63 million worth of BNB seized from a bankrupt exchange.
What really matters isn’t the amount, but the route. On-chain analysts observed that the government first made a test transfer of 0.00115539 BTC to an institutional custody platform at a U.S. exchange, then transferred 264.86 BTC to a new wallet. Test transfers like this typically happen before the rest of the coins are moved.
More importantly, the government has changed its approach. In the past, it handled seized coins through auctions, dumping them on the market all at once. Now, the Marshals Service is working directly with an exchange’s custody and trading teams to dispose of these digital assets classified as Class 1. The same coins have gone from being a one-off source of selling pressure to a routine outflow.
The implications for the price are completely different. An auction-driven dump is a one-time shock: the market can price it in ahead of time and recover afterward. Gradual selling through a platform may not be noticeable on the charts, but it steadily adds supply to the market, and buyers have to absorb that additional supply continuously.
So what we should be watching now isn’t when another large transfer appears. It’s the pace of outflows from those addresses, and what proportion of the 320,000-coin reserve has already been earmarked for disposal. At current prices, the U.S. government’s 323,000 BTC are worth close to $27.7 billion—a large enough amount to affect medium-term supply and demand, but no one knows the timeline.
That’s the uncertainty: the market is debating whether Bitcoin can break through the $87,000 level, while looming above it is a massive seller whose schedule has not been disclosed.
Everyone’s first reaction to this news was that the government was about to dump its Bitcoin... But the 833 Bitcoin moved this time amount to less than 0.3% of its own holdings.
💬 有想法的进群聊
On Tuesday, wallets associated with the U.S. Marshals Service moved Bitcoin for the first time since August 26, transferring a total of 833.6 BTC worth just over $71 million. The coins came from two cases: the 2016 hack of an exchange and a fraud scheme involving fake cloud mining. On the same day, the same batch of wallets also moved $31.63 million worth of BNB seized from a bankrupt exchange.
What really matters isn’t the amount, but the route. On-chain analysts observed that the government first made a test transfer of 0.00115539 BTC to an institutional custody platform at a U.S. exchange, then transferred 264.86 BTC to a new wallet. Test transfers like this typically happen before the rest of the coins are moved.
More importantly, the government has changed its approach. In the past, it handled seized coins through auctions, dumping them on the market all at once. Now, the Marshals Service is working directly with an exchange’s custody and trading teams to dispose of these digital assets classified as Class 1. The same coins have gone from being a one-off source of selling pressure to a routine outflow.
The implications for the price are completely different. An auction-driven dump is a one-time shock: the market can price it in ahead of time and recover afterward. Gradual selling through a platform may not be noticeable on the charts, but it steadily adds supply to the market, and buyers have to absorb that additional supply continuously.
So what we should be watching now isn’t when another large transfer appears. It’s the pace of outflows from those addresses, and what proportion of the 320,000-coin reserve has already been earmarked for disposal. At current prices, the U.S. government’s 323,000 BTC are worth close to $27.7 billion—a large enough amount to affect medium-term supply and demand, but no one knows the timeline.
That’s the uncertainty: the market is debating whether Bitcoin can break through the $87,000 level, while looming above it is a massive seller whose schedule has not been disclosed.
