Crypto Beginner, Day 9: Who’s Actually Driving a Coin’s Price? I’m Starting to Look at “Bull-Bear Pressure”
For the past few days, I’ve been learning how to analyze a coin.
Today, I’m starting to explore a more important question:
When the price rises, is it because buying pressure is genuinely strong, or have short-term funds simply pushed the price up?
For now, I’m looking at a few things.
① Price
The basics.
First, I check whether the highs and lows are steadily rising, or whether the price just spiked suddenly.
② Trading volume
If the price rises and trading volume expands significantly at the same time, it suggests that more people are participating in the market.
But if the price rises a lot while trading volume keeps shrinking, I stay cautious.
③ Open interest (OI)
I used to have no idea what OI was.
Simply put:
OI = the total size of contract positions in the market that have not yet been closed.
If the price rises and OI also increases significantly, it means new contract positions are entering the market.
But that doesn’t mean the price will “definitely keep rising.”
Because some of those new positions could be short positions.
④ Funding rate
If a lot of futures traders pile into long positions, the funding rate may stay elevated.
At that point, I find myself wondering:
Have too many people crowded onto the same side?
Because sometimes the market is most dangerous not when nobody is bullish, but when everyone is.
⑤ Finally, check for divergences between bulls and bears
For example:
The price makes a new high,
but trading volume, OI, or other indicators don’t strengthen along with it.
In that situation, I wouldn’t immediately go short, but I would be more cautious.
⸻
My trading logic used to be:
Price up → bullish
Price down → bearish
Now I want to gradually shift to:
Price → trading volume → OI → funding rate → market positioning
Then decide:
Whether to trade.
I feel like real trading may not be about predicting the next candlestick, but about constantly asking:
“Which side currently has more strength in the market?”
Day 9. Keep learning.
$BTC
For the past few days, I’ve been learning how to analyze a coin.
Today, I’m starting to explore a more important question:
When the price rises, is it because buying pressure is genuinely strong, or have short-term funds simply pushed the price up?
For now, I’m looking at a few things.
① Price
The basics.
First, I check whether the highs and lows are steadily rising, or whether the price just spiked suddenly.
② Trading volume
If the price rises and trading volume expands significantly at the same time, it suggests that more people are participating in the market.
But if the price rises a lot while trading volume keeps shrinking, I stay cautious.
③ Open interest (OI)
I used to have no idea what OI was.
Simply put:
OI = the total size of contract positions in the market that have not yet been closed.
If the price rises and OI also increases significantly, it means new contract positions are entering the market.
But that doesn’t mean the price will “definitely keep rising.”
Because some of those new positions could be short positions.
④ Funding rate
If a lot of futures traders pile into long positions, the funding rate may stay elevated.
At that point, I find myself wondering:
Have too many people crowded onto the same side?
Because sometimes the market is most dangerous not when nobody is bullish, but when everyone is.
⑤ Finally, check for divergences between bulls and bears
For example:
The price makes a new high,
but trading volume, OI, or other indicators don’t strengthen along with it.
In that situation, I wouldn’t immediately go short, but I would be more cautious.
⸻
My trading logic used to be:
Price up → bullish
Price down → bearish
Now I want to gradually shift to:
Price → trading volume → OI → funding rate → market positioning
Then decide:
Whether to trade.
I feel like real trading may not be about predicting the next candlestick, but about constantly asking:
“Which side currently has more strength in the market?”
Day 9. Keep learning.
$BTC