It fell 8.13% over $LIT 24 hours, but if you focus only on this red candle, you might think it was just an ordinary pullback day. What really stands out is another set of numbers: down 15.87% over 7 days and 16.04% over 30 days. The declines across these three timeframes are almost identical, which suggests this isn't a one-day move, but a slide that's lasted a full month.
Thirty days ago, the price was still at $5.31. Now it's at $3.77, sliding all the way down with barely any meaningful rebound structure. There were two attempts to fight back on increased volume along the way: the bullish candle on September 24 surged to $5.31, then promptly fizzled out; on October 6, the price rebounded to $4.02 on volume of 136M, but still couldn't hold. In this kind of market, the 24-hour low of $3.72 isn't worth treating as support—it looks more like a floor worn down by repeated tests.
My view is that there's no evidence here that the price has “fallen enough.” LIT is already down 52% from its ATH, but a coin's price being cut in half has never been a buying thesis in crypto. On October 1, trading volume of 253M barely moved the price, which looks more like distribution than bottom-fishing. The only somewhat positive sign is that the losses are narrowing. In early October, each dip near $3.55 was met with buyers, which shows that someone really is supporting the price below—but the problem is that they're holding it up, not pushing it higher.
So what we really need to confirm isn't whether it can climb back to $4.2, but whether it can hold $3.5 and whether trading volume will continue to shrink.
Here's what I'm wondering: if you're holding $LIT , is your key level today's candle close—whether $3.77 held above $3.6—or are you more interested in waiting for the daily chart to reclaim the $4.0 level before considering the thesis? That's more of a swing-trading approach. The entries, exits, and stop-loss levels are completely different. Which side are you on?
Thirty days ago, the price was still at $5.31. Now it's at $3.77, sliding all the way down with barely any meaningful rebound structure. There were two attempts to fight back on increased volume along the way: the bullish candle on September 24 surged to $5.31, then promptly fizzled out; on October 6, the price rebounded to $4.02 on volume of 136M, but still couldn't hold. In this kind of market, the 24-hour low of $3.72 isn't worth treating as support—it looks more like a floor worn down by repeated tests.
My view is that there's no evidence here that the price has “fallen enough.” LIT is already down 52% from its ATH, but a coin's price being cut in half has never been a buying thesis in crypto. On October 1, trading volume of 253M barely moved the price, which looks more like distribution than bottom-fishing. The only somewhat positive sign is that the losses are narrowing. In early October, each dip near $3.55 was met with buyers, which shows that someone really is supporting the price below—but the problem is that they're holding it up, not pushing it higher.
So what we really need to confirm isn't whether it can climb back to $4.2, but whether it can hold $3.5 and whether trading volume will continue to shrink.
Here's what I'm wondering: if you're holding $LIT , is your key level today's candle close—whether $3.77 held above $3.6—or are you more interested in waiting for the daily chart to reclaim the $4.0 level before considering the thesis? That's more of a swing-trading approach. The entries, exits, and stop-loss levels are completely different. Which side are you on?