$NEAR rose steadily from $2.30 to $5.38, more than doubling in 30 days, and has now pulled back to $5.15, caught in the first decline after its surge. The 7-day net gain is down to just 3.53%, suggesting that much of the rally’s momentum has already been spent. From September 18 to 24, daily volume stayed above $1.5B for several consecutive days, peaking at $2.51B—that was the real fuel behind this rally. Volume has now contracted to around $780M. The price hasn’t broken down, but the liquidity driving it higher has clearly thinned.
What draws my attention more are the two bearish candles on October 2 and 3, when the price plunged from $5.33 back to $4.69, a drop of nearly 12%, on substantial volume. This suggests some investors started taking profits in the $5.3–$5.5 range. Not everyone believes the current AI narrative at market cap rank #21 can carry the price straight toward its ATH. After all, it’s still 74.78% below its ATH—not a level it can reach on momentum alone.
The market now looks more like it’s waiting for a directional move. If trading volume picks up again over the next two days and the price holds above $5.03, this would be a strong consolidation, with shares changing hands at elevated levels. Conversely, if volume continues to shrink, the pullback shouldn’t be judged solely by the 24-hour low of $5.03; watch whether the price can hold around $4.7, where those bearish candles formed.
$NEAR ’s L1 narrative and AI concept have no shortage of alpha. The disagreement is over how much of that alpha has already been priced in by the doubling rally from $2.4 to $5.3. At the current market cap of $6.74B and daily trading volume of $781M, the market still needs a bullish candle on rising volume to confirm the move. Whether that candle marks the start of a new rally, or is the strength investors want but can no longer summon after the surge has run its course, remains unanswered.
What draws my attention more are the two bearish candles on October 2 and 3, when the price plunged from $5.33 back to $4.69, a drop of nearly 12%, on substantial volume. This suggests some investors started taking profits in the $5.3–$5.5 range. Not everyone believes the current AI narrative at market cap rank #21 can carry the price straight toward its ATH. After all, it’s still 74.78% below its ATH—not a level it can reach on momentum alone.
The market now looks more like it’s waiting for a directional move. If trading volume picks up again over the next two days and the price holds above $5.03, this would be a strong consolidation, with shares changing hands at elevated levels. Conversely, if volume continues to shrink, the pullback shouldn’t be judged solely by the 24-hour low of $5.03; watch whether the price can hold around $4.7, where those bearish candles formed.
$NEAR ’s L1 narrative and AI concept have no shortage of alpha. The disagreement is over how much of that alpha has already been priced in by the doubling rally from $2.4 to $5.3. At the current market cap of $6.74B and daily trading volume of $781M, the market still needs a bullish candle on rising volume to confirm the move. Whether that candle marks the start of a new rally, or is the strength investors want but can no longer summon after the surge has run its course, remains unanswered.