DOLLAR PLUNGES AFTER ELECTIONS: DROP OR TRAP?

Yesterday (05/10), the market sent a message. The spot dollar closed at R$ 5.0022, down 4.12%, after hitting R$ 4.95 during the trading session. The Ibovespa rose 7.70% and broke through 200,000 points.

Why did it fall so much?

It wasn’t a weak dollar abroad. This was Brazil, pure and simple. The Real’s appreciation was driven predominantly by domestic factors, linked to the electoral landscape. The market priced in lower fiscal risk and expectations of foreign capital inflows.

But watch out for the other side:

THE DOLLAR’S APPRECIATION is still on the radar:

1. Historical analysis shows that the dollar tends to appreciate 3, 6, and 12 months after elections in Brazil (a pattern seen in 2014, 2018, and 2022). 2. The median forecast is still for the dollar to reach R$ 5.30 by the end of 2026, so levels below R$ 5.00 are seen as a buying opportunity. 3. Goldman Sachs forecasts a rate as low as R$ 4.35 IF fiscal consolidation takes hold, but that depends on the second round on 25/10.

WHICH CURRENCIES ARE LIKELY TO RISE NOW?

🚀 BRL - The real is leading: It led global gains after the first round. A contagion effect was seen in Latin America: after elections in Chile, Colombia, and Peru, all currencies appreciated against the dollar over the following 42 trading sessions.

₿ BTC / ETH / SOL: With the dollar weaker here, liquidity is flowing into risk assets. BTC is closing the quarter up 43%. If foreign inflows continue, crypto will be the first to ride the wave.

💰 Stablecoins (USDT / USDC): For anyone looking to lock in the dollar at R$ 5.00. Many people are buying cheap dollars on Binance now to build up cash ahead of the second round.

⚠️ My strategy: Don’t sell all my dollars right now. Take 30% of my profits in BRL, keep cash in USDT, and stay long on BTC. Volatility will remain high through 25/10.

What about you? Are you going to buy dollars during this dip, or are you already invested in crypto? #Binance #CRİPTO #EvernorthXRPTreasuryCompletesSPACMerger #dollar #eleicoesBRA $BTC