MINA falls over 27%: Heavy-volume 4-hour sell-off and rising short positions—what stabilization signal should we watch for first?

Bottom line: MINA currently looks more like a high-volatility phase marked by “heavy-volume declines and a rapid increase in perpetual-futures shorts.” It is not suitable to call a bottom just because the funding rate has turned negative. For a genuine sign of stabilization, at a minimum, closed candles must stop repeatedly breaking below around $0.118, and a rebound must reclaim the $0.1236–$0.1305 area. If the price continues making new lows while open interest rises, beware of further volatility when chasing shorts or trying to buy the dip.
As of 03:35 Beijing time on October 7, 2026, Binance spot MINAUSDT was trading at around $0.1181, down 26.964% over 24 hours, with a range of $0.1179–$0.1625; the latest USDⓈ-M perpetual price was around $0.11788. Spot and perpetual prices have fallen largely in tandem, with no clear spot-strong, futures-weak divergence that could currently serve as a basis for expecting a reversal.
Looking at closed candles, the most recently closed 1-hour candle closed at $0.1214, with a trading volume of about $378,000, roughly 9% below the average of the previous 20 candles. The most recently closed 4-hour candle closed at $0.1236, with a trading volume of about $1.462 million, around 2.48 times the average of the previous 20 candles. In other words, the main selling pressure occurred on the 4-hour timeframe, but the latest hour did not see a comparable increase in trading volume. This may indicate a change in the pace of short-term selling pressure, but it should not be taken as a trend reversal.
On the daily chart, the most recently closed daily candle closed at $0.1492, with a high of $0.1714, a low of $0.1480, and a trading volume of about $2.664 million, roughly 0.93 times the average of the previous 20 candles. The current price is already significantly below that close, and the daily structure remains weak. Until reclaimed, the $0.1480–$0.1492 range should not be treated as short-term support.
The derivatives data are even more concerning. Over the most recent 30 hours or so, Binance open interest rose from 33.657 million tokens to 53.066 million, an increase of about 57.6% by token count. Since the price fell at the same time, the value of open interest rose from about $5.590 million to $6.416 million, still an increase of about 14.8%. This indicates that a large amount of new leverage entered during the decline. The fact that “the price has fallen a lot” alone is not enough to conclude that selling pressure has ended.
Funding rates are also turning negative rapidly: the most recently settled funding rate was about -0.0913%, while the latest rate shown by the current API is about -0.1742% per settlement period. The perpetual mark price is around $0.11787, and the index price is around $0.11811. A negative funding rate means that the short side is more crowded, but in extreme market conditions this could trigger a short-term squeeze, or it could simply be a normal consequence of a downtrend. It cannot, on its own, be used as a reason to go long.
Next, I’ll look for three types of confirmation:
1. Bullish confirmation: The price first holds the $0.1179–$0.1180 range, then a closed 1-hour candle reclaims $0.1214. Stronger confirmation would be a 4-hour close back above $0.1236, followed by a continued reclaim of $0.1305.
2. Bearish continuation: A closed 1-hour or 4-hour candle breaks decisively below $0.1179, while trading volume increases noticeably again and OI does not fall rapidly at the same time. This would indicate that new leverage is still following the move down.
3. Range-bound recovery: The price stabilizes while OI falls and the funding rate gradually normalizes, indicating that leverage is being flushed out. This would be closer to a healthy recovery than simply seeing the funding rate turn negative, but the price would still need to reclaim $0.1214–$0.1236.
The invalidation conditions are also clear: If the price only briefly wicks below $0.1179 intraday, without confirmation from a closed candle, it should not be described as a “confirmed breakdown.” If the price rebounds while OI and negative funding rates continue to expand to extremes, the rebound should not be interpreted as a trend reversal either. The key issue for MINA right now is not whether the decline has been large enough, but whether leverage is actually starting to exit during the downturn.
Data methodology and sources: Collected at 03:35 Beijing time on October 7, 2026. Price and candlestick data are from Binance’s public spot API; open interest, funding rates, and mark/index prices are from Binance’s public USDⓈ-M API. This article is an observation of market structure only and does not constitute investment advice.
Sources:
https://api.binance.com/api/v3/ticker/24hr?symbol=MINAUSDT
https://api.binance.com/api/v3/klines?symbol=MINAUSDT&interval=1h&limit=30
https://api.binance.com/api/v3/klines?symbol=MINAUSDT&interval=4h&limit=30
https://api.binance.com/api/v3/klines?symbol=MINAUSDT&interval=1d&limit=30
https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/ticker/24hr?symbol=MINAUSDT
https://fapi.binance.com/futures/data/openInterestHist?symbol=MINAUSDT&period=1h&limit=30
https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/fundingRate?symbol=MINAUSDT&limit=5
https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/premiumIndex?symbol=MINAUSDT