The market is rising again today, but gains and losses are starting to diverge.
Binance spot data: FIL is currently priced at 1.1594, up 7.20% in 24 hours, with a high of 1.211 and a low of 1.0765; trading volume is $26 million. AVAX is currently priced at 11.465, up 5.56%, with a high of 11.691 and a low of 10.855. INJ is currently priced at 7.814, up 4.08%, with a high of 7.983 and a low of 7.474.
Three established coins are rising together, with gains ranging from 4% to 7%.
But what about the other side? UNI is currently priced at 8.617, down 3.33% in 24 hours, with a high of 9.184 and a low of 8.598. OP is down 1.65%, LTC is down 1.31%, WIF is down 0.99%, and ARB is down 0.84%.
Coins that had already risen are falling, while established coins that hadn't risen are gaining. That's divergence.
Why are FIL, AVAX, and INJ still rising?
Because they’re all older coins that hadn’t risen much before.
Think back to this altcoin season:
• ZEC rose from 788 to 1698, up 115%
• NEAR rose from 2.3 to 5.57, up 142%
• UNI rose from 6 to 10.9, up 81%
• SUI rose from 0.63 to 1.28, up 103%
These coins have all already rallied. But what about FIL, AVAX, and INJ?
FIL fell from its 2021 high of 238 to 1, down 95%. It barely rose during this altcoin season and has only just started moving.
AVAX fell from a high of 140 to around 10, down 93%. It hasn’t risen much this time either; it only rallied recently on positive Goldman news.
INJ fell from a high of 40 to around 7, down 82%. It hasn’t risen much this time either.
These coins have one thing in common: they’re older coins that fell 80%–95% and barely rose during this altcoin season. Now that money has pushed up every coin that could rally, it’s finally found these older coins that haven’t risen yet and is driving a catch-up rally.
Why is UNI starting to fall?
Because UNI has already had its rally.
UNI rose from 6 to 10.9, up 81%. The positive news about the fee switch has already been priced in. Everyone who wanted to buy has bought, and now sellers are starting to sell.
That’s how altcoin season works: once a coin has finished rising, money moves on to the next one. UNI’s rally is over, so money is flowing out of UNI and into older coins like FIL, AVAX, and INJ that haven’t risen yet.
So you’re seeing UNI down 3.33% and FIL up 7.2%. It’s not that something bad happened to UNI; money has simply shifted direction.
A quick note about the psychology behind this
Think back to how this altcoin season has unfolded:
In early September, ZEC rose, and you chased ZEC.
In mid-September, NEAR rose, and you sold ZEC to chase NEAR.
In late September, UNI rose, and you sold NEAR to chase UNI.
In early October, ADA rose, and you sold UNI to chase ADA.
Now FIL, AVAX, and INJ are rising, and you want to sell ADA to chase FIL.
This is the full cycle of chasing pumps and selling dips. You’re always chasing a rally, always selling at a loss, and always switching coins.
But have you ever calculated this? Every time you switch coins, you lose money to fees, slippage, and emotional stress. Switch coins ten times, and even if you get it right every time, fees will eat up a large part of your profits.
People who really make money get in before a coin rises, hold on, and sell after it’s finished rising. They don’t chase pumps, sell the dips, and switch coins every day.
What should you do now?
First, let’s look at the key levels:
FIL: 1.211 was today’s high and is short-term resistance. If it breaks through, watch 1.3; support is at 1.1.
AVAX: 11.691 was today’s high and is resistance. If it breaks through, watch 12; support is at 11.
INJ: 7.983 was today’s high and is resistance. If it breaks through, watch 8.5; support is at 7.5.
UNI: 8.598 was today’s low and is support. If it breaks below, watch 8.3; resistance is at 9.2.
BTC: 86699 was today’s high and is resistance. If it breaks through, watch 87000; support is at 85000.
Let’s break it down by situation:
If you hold FIL/AVAX/INJ: you’re in profit now. If they can’t break through around 1.2/11.7/8.0, take some profit off the table. The older-coin catch-up rally is nearing its end—don’t get greedy.
If you hold UNI: it has fallen from a high of 10.9 to 8.6, down 21%. First, see if 8.5 holds. If it does, there may be a chance to rebound to 9.0, at which point consider reducing your position. If it doesn’t hold, reduce part of your position now. UNI’s rally is over, and money is flowing out.
If you chased FIL/AVAX today: don’t chase them during a catch-up rally. These coins are having their last run; once they finish rising, they’ll fall. If you really want to buy, wait for a 5% pullback before considering it.
If you’re sitting on the sidelines: don’t rush. The older-coin catch-up rally is nearing its end, and coins that rose earlier are starting to pull back. That means altcoin season is close to ending. Wait for this catch-up rally to finish and for the broader market to pull back before entering.
One last thing
FIL is up 7.2%, AVAX 5.56%, and INJ 4.08%—older coins are still catching up. But UNI is down 3.3%, which shows that coins that rose earlier are starting to pull back.
Money is flowing out of coins that have already risen and into older coins that haven’t. This is sector rotation, not a new bull market.
Once every older coin that can rise has already risen, the rotation is over. Don’t chase prices during the final catch-up rally—that’s not an opportunity; you’ll be left holding the bag.
Did you chase older coins today? A. I chased FIL and am slightly in profit. B. I chased AVAX and am slightly in profit. C. I hold UNI and am underwater. D. I’m sitting on the sidelines. Be honest in the comments.
#FIL up 7.2%, AVAX up 5.56%; older coins catching up, UNI down 3.3%—market divergence #CryptoMarketAnalysis
