Many people think that when Bitcoin rises, you should go long, and when it falls, you should go short.

But anyone who actually trades futures knows:

The most dangerous market is one that makes you think you got the direction right.

I usually focus on three signals:

① Price rises while OI continues to increase

This indicates that positions are increasing, but both longs and shorts may be entering. You have to consider Delta and price action together to determine which side is more aggressive.

② Price keeps rising, but Delta starts turning negative

This indicates that aggressive selling is increasing. If the price continues to make new highs, watch to see whether the selling is being absorbed; if the price starts to stall, beware of a sharp pullback.

③ Price falls while OI drops rapidly

It could be concentrated long-position closures, or the market could be deleveraging. Don’t assume that just because prices are falling, shorts will keep profiting.

Remember this:

What’s truly worth trading isn’t the price movement itself, but the capital behavior behind it.

Retail traders look at candlestick charts and guess the direction,

Seasoned traders use capital flows to validate their judgment.

Of course, no single indicator can determine whether to buy or sell.