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Author | Asher (@Asher_ 0210)
At 10 a.m. this morning, BNB Chain prediction market predict.fun posted “Soon” on X, accompanied by an image of a token bearing the letter P, hinting that a token launch may be coming.
Below, Odaily Planet Daily analyzes when predict.fun is likely to launch its token and how much each point may be worth, based on all currently available information.
The only prediction market on BNB Chain, backed by two rounds of investment from YZi Labs
predict.fun is a prediction market platform on BNB Chain, founded by dingaling, a well-known figure in the NFT space. Unlike traditional prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi, funds users commit to predictions on predict.fun do not sit idle; they can also generate additional yield during the prediction period.
As of today, predict.fun has completed two funding rounds:
December 2025 (incubation/first round): Joined YZi Labs EASY Residency Season 2 and received its first investment and incubation support;
April 2, 2026 (strategic follow-on investment): YZi Labs invested again, joined by Susquehanna Crypto.
In addition, based on founder dingaling's response to a question about fundraising in the official Discord, new funding news may be announced soon.
predict.fun is currently integrated into the Binance main platform and Binance Wallet, allowing users to participate in prediction markets directly through either.
“Weeks, not months”: Could the TGE take place late this month or early next month?
Many projects hint at an upcoming token launch on their official accounts, but few actually complete a TGE in a short period. So after predict.fun posted “Soon” at 10 a.m. this morning, plenty of “airdrop farmers” still wondered whether this was yet another way to delay the TGE.
However, dingaling later quoted the post and said, “Weeks, not months. Predict and get rewarded,” providing a more specific timing signal than “Soon.” predict.fun’s token launch is now on a countdown measured in weeks. After speaking with several early predict.fun community members, the general guess is that the TGE may take place on a day three to four weeks from now, sometime from the end of this month to early next month.
The token-launch signal was quickly reflected in prediction markets. According to Polymarket data, the odds of predict.fun launching a token by December 31 this year rose by nearly 40% in 24 hours, and currently stand at 83%.
How much is one point actually worth in U?
To determine the value of one point, we need to clarify three figures: the total number of points, the over-the-counter valuation, and the airdrop allocation.
Total points
predict.fun points can broadly be divided into four categories: regularly issued daily points, which make up the vast majority; genesis points from Epoch 0; points carried over from the acquisition of Probable (mostly exchanged at a 1:10 ratio); and ambassador points (100,000 points per week).
For ease of estimation, genesis points and points converted from Probable are together assumed to equal one week of regular issuance, or about 10 million PP. Ambassador points account for a small share and are excluded for now. The key figure is therefore the number of points issued regularly each week. predict.fun settles points weekly, at 10 p.m. every Tuesday. The token-launch signal came on a Tuesday, and after tonight’s settlement, points for Week 42 will have been issued.
Based on the recorded data from Week 1 to Week 41, 10 million points were issued each week from Week 1 to Week 19, for a total of 190 million points. Starting in Week 20, weekly issuance was no longer fixed. Across the 22 weeks from Week 20 to Week 41, a total of 216,997,841 points were issued, or about 217 million PP.
This means predict.fun issued a total of 407 million points in the first 41 weeks. Assuming 10 million points for Week 42, the official total issued to date is 420 million points. Including genesis points and points from the acquired project, the total is 430 million points.
Based on the estimates above, if the TGE takes place from late October to early November, the total number of points will be around 460 million to 470 million. If December 1 is the actual snapshot date for the TGE airdrop, the total will be 500 million points.
Pre-market valuation
According to Aspecta data, predict.fun has a pre-market valuation of around $750 million, with total trading volume of $2.44 million.
In addition, according to Polymarket data, the odds of predict.fun reaching an FDV of over $800 million one day after launch currently stand at 51%.
Given current market sentiment, it is reasonable to estimate predict.fun's opening market cap at $700 million to $800 million. FOMO-driven sentiment—such as “another funding round” or “CZ shilling it again”—could push the optimistic valuation to around $1 billion.
Airdrop allocation
There is no clear data confirming the first season's airdrop allocation, but two earlier comments dingaling made on the official Discord can serve as reference points: first, he said OPN's 3% airdrop allocation was too low; second, during a community discussion about Variational's airdrop allocation, he said that an allocation of 32% was not feasible.
While these two statements do not directly establish the airdrop allocation, they provide a rough basis for estimating it. If predict.fun continues to run seasons such as S2 and S3 after the TGE, the team will also need to reserve tokens for future incentives. Therefore, this article uses 5% to 20% as an estimated range for the first season's airdrop allocation to calculate the value of points below.
Point valuation
Based on the analysis above, the potential value of each predict.fun point is as follows (assuming 500 million total points—the December 1 snapshot date, a bearish assumption—and a $1 billion opening FDV, a bullish assumption):
Bearish: 5% to 10% airdrop allocation; each point worth $0.10 to $0.20;
Neutral: 10% to 15% airdrop allocation; each point worth $0.20 to $0.30;
Bullish: 15% to 20% airdrop allocation; each point worth $0.30 to $0.40;
Therefore, the potential value of a predict.fun point is approximately $0.10 to $0.40.