$ONDO gives me the impression right now that it’s digesting, not taking off. This view needs to be tested against three things: whether trading volume can keep contracting, whether $0.48 can hold, and whether the 30-day gain of +30.80% will gradually be given back.
The price action isn’t complicated. On September 25, the price climbed from $0.41 to $0.52, while daily trading volume surged to $1.06B. It then touched $0.587 the following week. Now it’s back at $0.496, up just +0.11% over 24 hours, with volume at $168M—less than a sixth of the peak. This isn’t a crash; it’s sideways trading after the excitement has cooled. What needs confirming is whether the money that came in at the end of September is looking to ride the RWA narrative for a while, or just cash in on a liquidity spike and leave.
I’m more focused on the overhead structure. The price is still 76.80% below its ATH of $2.14, and there’s still a dense cluster of underwater holders above $1. Any rebound will run into selling pressure from people looking to break even. The 30-day return is still positive at +30.80%, which suggests the people selling now may not be at a loss; they could be early buyers taking profits.
The invalidation conditions are very specific: if $ONDO can hold above $0.48 in low-volume sideways trading, then break above $0.55 on rising volume, the token rotation will be complete, and my view will have been too conservative. If it drops below $0.45 and volume picks up again, that’s when it’s worth reassessing. You can verify these two conditions yourself—there’s no need to rush into taking sides.
The price action isn’t complicated. On September 25, the price climbed from $0.41 to $0.52, while daily trading volume surged to $1.06B. It then touched $0.587 the following week. Now it’s back at $0.496, up just +0.11% over 24 hours, with volume at $168M—less than a sixth of the peak. This isn’t a crash; it’s sideways trading after the excitement has cooled. What needs confirming is whether the money that came in at the end of September is looking to ride the RWA narrative for a while, or just cash in on a liquidity spike and leave.
I’m more focused on the overhead structure. The price is still 76.80% below its ATH of $2.14, and there’s still a dense cluster of underwater holders above $1. Any rebound will run into selling pressure from people looking to break even. The 30-day return is still positive at +30.80%, which suggests the people selling now may not be at a loss; they could be early buyers taking profits.
The invalidation conditions are very specific: if $ONDO can hold above $0.48 in low-volume sideways trading, then break above $0.55 on rising volume, the token rotation will be complete, and my view will have been too conservative. If it drops below $0.45 and volume picks up again, that’s when it’s worth reassessing. You can verify these two conditions yourself—there’s no need to rush into taking sides.