82.3% looks like an answer, but it’s really just the market’s quote at a particular moment.
Tonight, Binance Square’s trending list says, “The probability of rates remaining unchanged in October has risen to 82.3%.” But a market snapshot cited later that same day by Reuters put it at around 78%, showing that this probability can continue to shift as fed funds futures move. The Fed’s official calendar shows that the meeting will take place on October 27–28; no decision has been made yet.
I’m more focused on whether upcoming employment and inflation data, along with officials’ remarks, cause expectations to become more concentrated. Markets often trade the consensus first, only for prices to reverse and give back gains once the outcome is announced. Probabilities can help you plan, but they can’t replace position sizing and stop-losses.
If holding rates steady is already the majority expectation, would you trade ahead of time or wait for the decision?
For personal market commentary only; not investment advice.
#美联储10月维持利率概率升至82.3% $BTC
Tonight, Binance Square’s trending list says, “The probability of rates remaining unchanged in October has risen to 82.3%.” But a market snapshot cited later that same day by Reuters put it at around 78%, showing that this probability can continue to shift as fed funds futures move. The Fed’s official calendar shows that the meeting will take place on October 27–28; no decision has been made yet.
I’m more focused on whether upcoming employment and inflation data, along with officials’ remarks, cause expectations to become more concentrated. Markets often trade the consensus first, only for prices to reverse and give back gains once the outcome is announced. Probabilities can help you plan, but they can’t replace position sizing and stop-losses.
If holding rates steady is already the majority expectation, would you trade ahead of time or wait for the decision?
For personal market commentary only; not investment advice.
#美联储10月维持利率概率升至82.3% $BTC
