Today, the U.S. is coming to market with around $153 billion in Treasury securities.
The schedule includes two major auctions: $95 billion in 6-week T-bills and $58 billion in new 3-year Treasury notes.
The results will be interesting not because of the amount itself. The market will be watching how readily investors are willing to absorb this supply, and at what yield.
If demand proves strong, yields could face additional downward pressure. If investors demand a higher rate, that will mean more expensive financing for the government and additional upward pressure on Treasury yields.
For crypto, the second-order effects are what matter: higher yields on U.S. debt raise the bar that risk assets have to compete with.
But I wouldn’t turn today’s auctions into a forecast for $BTC . An auction isn’t a “risk-on” or “risk-off” button.
I’m more interested in something else: when the Treasury offers the market this much at once, demand for U.S. debt becomes a macro signal in its own right.
Today, we’re not looking at how much the U.S. will borrow. We’re looking at how much the market will demand in return.
If you want to break down macro signals like these without fortune-telling based on a single indicator, subscribe to @MoonMan567
The schedule includes two major auctions: $95 billion in 6-week T-bills and $58 billion in new 3-year Treasury notes.
The results will be interesting not because of the amount itself. The market will be watching how readily investors are willing to absorb this supply, and at what yield.
If demand proves strong, yields could face additional downward pressure. If investors demand a higher rate, that will mean more expensive financing for the government and additional upward pressure on Treasury yields.
For crypto, the second-order effects are what matter: higher yields on U.S. debt raise the bar that risk assets have to compete with.
But I wouldn’t turn today’s auctions into a forecast for $BTC . An auction isn’t a “risk-on” or “risk-off” button.
I’m more interested in something else: when the Treasury offers the market this much at once, demand for U.S. debt becomes a macro signal in its own right.
Today, we’re not looking at how much the U.S. will borrow. We’re looking at how much the market will demand in return.
If you want to break down macro signals like these without fortune-telling based on a single indicator, subscribe to @MoonMan567
