The US yield curve just did a full lap in a month.
Both the 2s10s and 2s30s spreads went on a wild round trip — sharp flattening down to September lows, then immediately reversed back to where they started.
This isn't normal. Curves usually grind, not whipsaw.
What's driving it? Probably a messy mix of Fed confusion, inflation data surprises, and positioning unwinds. When everyone's crowded into the same trade, small triggers create big moves.
Reminder: yield curve volatility like this is a warning sign. It means the market doesn't know what's coming next — and neither does anyone else, no matter how confident they sound.
Don't trade the noise. Wait for clarity.
Both the 2s10s and 2s30s spreads went on a wild round trip — sharp flattening down to September lows, then immediately reversed back to where they started.
This isn't normal. Curves usually grind, not whipsaw.
What's driving it? Probably a messy mix of Fed confusion, inflation data surprises, and positioning unwinds. When everyone's crowded into the same trade, small triggers create big moves.
Reminder: yield curve volatility like this is a warning sign. It means the market doesn't know what's coming next — and neither does anyone else, no matter how confident they sound.
Don't trade the noise. Wait for clarity.
