$CL #OilMarket
Saudi East–West Pipeline/Yanbu — physical supply restoration, 🔴 Bearish +1. Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, confirmed on the morning of 6/10 that the East–West Pipeline’s operating capacity/flow had recovered to around 5.8 million barrels per day, transporting oil from eastern Saudi Arabia to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. Reuters published the information at around 09:16 UTC = 16:16 Vietnam time; Saudi Gazette also directly quoted the Minister. This is government-level confirmation that Saudi Arabia’s most important Hormuz bypass route is operating at a very large scale.
However, I’m assigning only Bearish +1, not +2/+3, because this figure is not entirely new in terms of scale: on 2/10, Bloomberg cited sources saying Aramco was pumping nearly 6 mb/d through the pipeline, of which around 4.5 mb/d could be allocated for export. What’s new today is the much stronger level of confirmation, shifting from anonymous sources to a public confirmation by Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister. In other words, I’m increasing the confidence weighting for the restoration of physical flows, not counting the full 5.8 mb/d again as new supply.
Therefore, the ledger is: 🟢 Bullish 66 / 🔴 Bearish 34 → Bearish +1 → 🟢65 / 🔴35.
Saudi East–West Pipeline/Yanbu — physical supply restoration, 🔴 Bearish +1. Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, confirmed on the morning of 6/10 that the East–West Pipeline’s operating capacity/flow had recovered to around 5.8 million barrels per day, transporting oil from eastern Saudi Arabia to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. Reuters published the information at around 09:16 UTC = 16:16 Vietnam time; Saudi Gazette also directly quoted the Minister. This is government-level confirmation that Saudi Arabia’s most important Hormuz bypass route is operating at a very large scale.
However, I’m assigning only Bearish +1, not +2/+3, because this figure is not entirely new in terms of scale: on 2/10, Bloomberg cited sources saying Aramco was pumping nearly 6 mb/d through the pipeline, of which around 4.5 mb/d could be allocated for export. What’s new today is the much stronger level of confirmation, shifting from anonymous sources to a public confirmation by Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister. In other words, I’m increasing the confidence weighting for the restoration of physical flows, not counting the full 5.8 mb/d again as new supply.
Therefore, the ledger is: 🟢 Bullish 66 / 🔴 Bearish 34 → Bearish +1 → 🟢65 / 🔴35.