$XAUT reported $4,155, down a slight 0.05% over 24 hours, with an intraday range of less than $14. Bulls and bears are both grinding away. Silver has surged in the precious-metals market, climbing to $61, while gold has barely budged during the daytime session. The biggest macro contrast comes from Swiss private bank Julius Baer, which expects the Fed to raise rates by another 25 basis points in December. The real tightening pressure is coming from long-term Treasury yields and the dollar. Dalio added that same evening that U.S. annual interest expenses have already reached $1 trillion. If interest rates are set to rise again, why is gold—a zero-yield asset—still holding above $4,100? The answer lies in the September data: spot gold ETFs saw net inflows of $3.49 billion, pushing annual net flows for 2026 into positive territory for the first time on September 23. Central banks are showing no sign of easing up either: the World Gold Council’s long-term data series shows that global central banks have been net buyers of gold for multiple consecutive months. The $4,150 level has been tested twice today without breaking, and even as silver rallied, gold didn’t follow. Two things to watch next: whether silver can hold above $60, and whether Fed comments undermine Julius Baer’s December rate-hike expectations. As long as $4,150 holds, gold is likely to remain range-bound; wait for rate-hike expectations to materialize before looking for $4,200. A break below the $4,100 mark would put the $4,050–$4,080 area back in focus as support.

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