BITCOIN HAS A MIDTERM PROBLEM.
2014: -56%
2018: -73%
2022: -64%
The last three midterm elections with enough Bitcoin data all ended with extremely deep declines.
And now it’s 2026.
BTC is hovering around $85K, while its previous ATH was about $126K.
Still sound bullish?
Maybe.
But if history repeats, the current 32% drawdown may not even be the scariest part.
Q4 during previous midterm years:
2014: -16.7%
2018: -42.2%
2022: -14.8%
And November 3, 2026 is still ahead.
The scariest thing isn’t that “the midterms will make BTC crash.”
Nobody knows that.
The scary part is:
If BTC really is entering a late-cycle unwind, people may be calling the current rebound a “bull market” right before liquidity disappears.
ETFs could see a sharp drop in flows.
Institutional money could help absorb selling pressure.
But ETFs can’t erase the cycle.
2026 doesn’t need a crash.
Even a partial repeat of history would hurt. 🩸
2014: -56%
2018: -73%
2022: -64%
The last three midterm elections with enough Bitcoin data all ended with extremely deep declines.
And now it’s 2026.
BTC is hovering around $85K, while its previous ATH was about $126K.
Still sound bullish?
Maybe.
But if history repeats, the current 32% drawdown may not even be the scariest part.
Q4 during previous midterm years:
2014: -16.7%
2018: -42.2%
2022: -14.8%
And November 3, 2026 is still ahead.
The scariest thing isn’t that “the midterms will make BTC crash.”
Nobody knows that.
The scary part is:
If BTC really is entering a late-cycle unwind, people may be calling the current rebound a “bull market” right before liquidity disappears.
ETFs could see a sharp drop in flows.
Institutional money could help absorb selling pressure.
But ETFs can’t erase the cycle.
2026 doesn’t need a crash.
Even a partial repeat of history would hurt. 🩸
