According to CNBC, Republican Sen. Roger Marshall is facing a tighter-than-expected race in Kansas against Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, with The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter moving the contest from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican" on Sept. 23. A September Emerson College/Nexstar poll of 750 likely voters showed Hamilton at 45% and Marshall at 43%, while Trump's approval in Kansas was 40% and disapproval 53%; nearly half of respondents named the economy as their top issue.

The race has sharpened as inflation, trade-policy backlash and pressure on farmers and ranchers weigh on voters. Marshall has tried to distance himself from some Trump administration policies, including fuel costs, food prices and a threatened ban on U.S. sales of Bombardier aircraft that could affect Wichita jobs. Kansas Livestock Association CEO Matt Teagarden said Washington interference is doing more harm than good, while Marshall said ICE operations in Kansas should coordinate more closely with local law enforcement.

Hamilton, a megachurch pastor, has drawn crossover support from former Republican governors Bill Graves and Mike Hayden and led Marshall among independents in the Emerson poll, 42% to 27%. Marshall still held $5.4 million in cash as of July 15, more than Hamilton's $1.7 million, but the Senate Leadership Fund has started a multimillion-dollar ad campaign in Kansas and reserved nearly $8.2 million in the state through Election Day.