You keep saying you’re going to buy the dip—so why did you still miss the rally?
According to a Grayscale report, BTC has gained around 225% in total over the past three years.
But if you look at the best-performing days, you’ll see what really drove those gains.
Exclude the top 5 trading days, and the return drops to just 95%.
Exclude the top 10, and it falls to just 27%.
Exclude the top 15, and it turns negative: -11%.
In other words, what really determined the returns over this period wasn’t a steady daily climb. The gains were concentrated in just a handful of trading days.
Fewer than 0.5% of trading days contributed enough gains to change the entire three-year result.
If you weren’t in the market during those 15 days, you probably missed the rally.
A lot of people think:
“I’ll buy when the trend is clearer.”
“I’ll buy when the Fed confirms rate cuts.”
“I’ll buy when the price breaks above its previous high.”
“I’ll buy after a pullback.”
But when prices really start rising, they think:
“It’s already gone up so much. If I buy now, am I just buying the top?”
So they keep waiting.
By the time the market finally makes sense to them, the price is already far beyond what they expected, and they no longer have the courage to chase it.
That’s what makes the crypto market so difficult:
Gains aren’t spread evenly over time.
Maybe 90% of the time, the market is moving sideways, falling, or making you question everything.
But the real rallies can happen in just a few days or weeks.
And the sharpest gains often come just as market sentiment is beginning to shift.
By the time everyone agrees that “the bull market is here,” it’s usually no longer the most comfortable time to buy.
That’s why many people aren’t wrong about the direction. They get it right, but they don’t get in while the market is still uncertain.
Then, once things are clear, they think the price is too high.
And all they can do is watch it keep rising.
That’s also why I increasingly feel that what’s truly scarce in the crypto market isn’t opportunities to profit from a rise, but opportunities to buy at low prices—and have the courage to do so.
There may only be a few such opportunities each year.
The biggest rallies may last just a few days.
Your job isn’t to predict exactly which day prices will surge. It’s to avoid waiting for “certainty” until the real opportunity has passed you by.
Of course, that doesn’t mean you should go all in at any time.
Keeping cash on hand, managing your position size, and having the courage to buy gradually when the market is extremely pessimistic may matter more than trying to pick the exact bottom.
Because no one knows which days will make all the difference to returns.
By the time you do, they’ve usually already passed.
That’s where we are now. Many people have already missed the rally. Buying now isn’t cheap, and they’re caught between a rock and a hard place.
Are you one of them?
According to a Grayscale report, BTC has gained around 225% in total over the past three years.
But if you look at the best-performing days, you’ll see what really drove those gains.
Exclude the top 5 trading days, and the return drops to just 95%.
Exclude the top 10, and it falls to just 27%.
Exclude the top 15, and it turns negative: -11%.
In other words, what really determined the returns over this period wasn’t a steady daily climb. The gains were concentrated in just a handful of trading days.
Fewer than 0.5% of trading days contributed enough gains to change the entire three-year result.
If you weren’t in the market during those 15 days, you probably missed the rally.
A lot of people think:
“I’ll buy when the trend is clearer.”
“I’ll buy when the Fed confirms rate cuts.”
“I’ll buy when the price breaks above its previous high.”
“I’ll buy after a pullback.”
But when prices really start rising, they think:
“It’s already gone up so much. If I buy now, am I just buying the top?”
So they keep waiting.
By the time the market finally makes sense to them, the price is already far beyond what they expected, and they no longer have the courage to chase it.
That’s what makes the crypto market so difficult:
Gains aren’t spread evenly over time.
Maybe 90% of the time, the market is moving sideways, falling, or making you question everything.
But the real rallies can happen in just a few days or weeks.
And the sharpest gains often come just as market sentiment is beginning to shift.
By the time everyone agrees that “the bull market is here,” it’s usually no longer the most comfortable time to buy.
That’s why many people aren’t wrong about the direction. They get it right, but they don’t get in while the market is still uncertain.
Then, once things are clear, they think the price is too high.
And all they can do is watch it keep rising.
That’s also why I increasingly feel that what’s truly scarce in the crypto market isn’t opportunities to profit from a rise, but opportunities to buy at low prices—and have the courage to do so.
There may only be a few such opportunities each year.
The biggest rallies may last just a few days.
Your job isn’t to predict exactly which day prices will surge. It’s to avoid waiting for “certainty” until the real opportunity has passed you by.
Of course, that doesn’t mean you should go all in at any time.
Keeping cash on hand, managing your position size, and having the courage to buy gradually when the market is extremely pessimistic may matter more than trying to pick the exact bottom.
Because no one knows which days will make all the difference to returns.
By the time you do, they’ve usually already passed.
That’s where we are now. Many people have already missed the rally. Buying now isn’t cheap, and they’re caught between a rock and a hard place.
Are you one of them?
