【If AVAX drops to $5, would you dare to buy the dip?】
I looked at AVAX’s candlestick chart last night. It’s fallen 92% from its ATH of nearly $150 to just over $10 now. I’ve seen that number before—in 2017, when EOS dropped from $23 to a little over $2, a similar fall. What’s the difference? EOS eventually bounced back for a while. AVAX hasn’t yet.
So the question now is: Is it time to buy the dip amid extreme fear?
The data is right there. The FNG Index is at 73, in the greed zone—not fear. The market is still hyped, funding rates haven’t collapsed, and BTC’s market dominance is 59.2%. These signals tell me that true extreme fear hasn’t arrived yet. Most likely, we’ll see another wave of long liquidations before we reach the point that really keeps people up at night.
But I’ve seen moments like that. Three days before the May 19, 2021 crash, the market suddenly flash-crashed, and the Fear Index plunged below 10. Moments like that are actually the real opportunities. What are the whales doing? Quietly accumulating. By the time retail investors have sold off, they’ve quietly built their positions. Then the market reverses, and by the time you chase it, they’ve already made their money.
So here are my own conditions for buying the AVAX dip: either the FNG drops below 20, or the price gets cut in half again to around $5. I’d only consider it if one of those two things happens. Without either condition, what people call buying the dip is just catching a falling knife.
As for the business case—what’s backing AVAX? Its DeFi ecosystem is still there, and the layer-1 blockchain narrative is still alive. But we all know how crowded this space has become. Solana, Cardano, and a bunch of new chains are competing for users. For AVAX’s story to keep going, it needs real-world applications—not just token issuance to keep up the hype.
Honestly, I’m not sure either. But right now, I’d rather miss out than get stuck holding the bag again. The wounds from 2021 haven’t quite healed. I may be itching to jump in, but I still need to hold back.
What about you? How are you feeling right now? If we really reach extreme fear, would you dare to jump in?
I looked at AVAX’s candlestick chart last night. It’s fallen 92% from its ATH of nearly $150 to just over $10 now. I’ve seen that number before—in 2017, when EOS dropped from $23 to a little over $2, a similar fall. What’s the difference? EOS eventually bounced back for a while. AVAX hasn’t yet.
So the question now is: Is it time to buy the dip amid extreme fear?
The data is right there. The FNG Index is at 73, in the greed zone—not fear. The market is still hyped, funding rates haven’t collapsed, and BTC’s market dominance is 59.2%. These signals tell me that true extreme fear hasn’t arrived yet. Most likely, we’ll see another wave of long liquidations before we reach the point that really keeps people up at night.
But I’ve seen moments like that. Three days before the May 19, 2021 crash, the market suddenly flash-crashed, and the Fear Index plunged below 10. Moments like that are actually the real opportunities. What are the whales doing? Quietly accumulating. By the time retail investors have sold off, they’ve quietly built their positions. Then the market reverses, and by the time you chase it, they’ve already made their money.
So here are my own conditions for buying the AVAX dip: either the FNG drops below 20, or the price gets cut in half again to around $5. I’d only consider it if one of those two things happens. Without either condition, what people call buying the dip is just catching a falling knife.
As for the business case—what’s backing AVAX? Its DeFi ecosystem is still there, and the layer-1 blockchain narrative is still alive. But we all know how crowded this space has become. Solana, Cardano, and a bunch of new chains are competing for users. For AVAX’s story to keep going, it needs real-world applications—not just token issuance to keep up the hype.
Honestly, I’m not sure either. But right now, I’d rather miss out than get stuck holding the bag again. The wounds from 2021 haven’t quite healed. I may be itching to jump in, but I still need to hold back.
What about you? How are you feeling right now? If we really reach extreme fear, would you dare to jump in?