Commodity markets were mixed on Tuesday. Brent crude held around $100 per barrel: the Middle East continues to pose risks to supply, but these are being offset by the recovery in exports from the region and the G7 decision to release emergency reserves. Gold fell due to a strong dollar and rising US bond yields. Copper rose for the third consecutive day amid a rally in the technology sector.

Oil

Oil prices are edging higher. At 08:53 Moscow time, Brent was up 0.45% at $100.78 per barrel, while WTI rose 0.32% to $89.72.

The market is maintaining a geopolitical premium amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Saudi government forces in Yemen retook the coast around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from the Houthis on Monday, advancing as far as the city of Mocha. In response, the Houthis claimed attacks on targets in Saudi Arabia, including an Aramco refinery in Rabigh, but these claims have not yet been confirmed. In addition, attacks on tankers have become more frequent amid a stalemate in US-Iran talks over the Strait of Hormuz.

Gains are being capped by signs of a recovery in supply. According to Reuters, oil shipments from Persian Gulf countries, excluding Iran, exceeded 81% of pre-war levels in September, driven by the recovery in Saudi exports. Iranian exports fell to zero due to the US blockade. In addition, G7 countries agreed on Friday to release 100 million barrels of diesel and oil from emergency reserves and pledged not to impose restrictions on energy exports after pressure from Trump.

Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sachdeva notes that it is too early to speak of a full normalization in supply: insurance, logistics, and security costs remain high. Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar adds that low oil inventories are making market participants wary of believing in a sustained price decline, while freight rates from the Persian Gulf to Asia have hit record highs.

Gold

Gold fell 0.48% to $4,120 per ounce. Gold futures declined 0.25% to $4,146. A strong dollar and rising yields are weighing on prices: 10- and 30-year Treasury yields hit 24-year highs on Monday.

Losses are being limited by easing expectations of a Fed rate hike in October following Friday's US labor market data: employment growth slowed more than forecast in September, and figures for the previous two months were revised down. Meanwhile, according to CME FedWatch, the probability of a rate hike in December is estimated at 87%. Inflation risks remain: the US services business activity index slowed in September, but the prices paid by companies for inputs rose to their highest level in more than four years.

Capital.com analyst Kyle Rodda believes that fundamental factors continue to support gold over the long term. In his view, the next catalyst could be geopolitical risks in the Middle East or a sharp shift in interest rate expectations.

Silver fell 0.6% to $60.69 per ounce, platinum lost 0.5% to $1,712.20, and palladium declined 0.5% to $1,166.86.

Copper

Copper is rising for a third straight day, tracking Asian stocks after a tech rally on Wall Street. The metal was up 0.1% at $14,438 per ton on the LME at 05:42 Moscow time, after gaining as much as 0.4% during the session. On Monday, copper posted its strongest gain in more than two weeks.

As Bloomberg reports, copper is being supported by the AI investment boom: demand from data centers and energy infrastructure is expected to grow in the coming years. The metal is also consolidating after hitting a record high last month, when the threat of US tariffs triggered a wave of shipments to the United States and raised concerns about shortages elsewhere. Copper, like other risk assets, is not yet reacting to global bond yields rising to multi-year highs.

Other metals were little changed, with nickel down 0.6%. Iron ore on the Singapore Exchange fell 0.5% to $91.30 per ton. Trading volumes in Asia are lower as Chinese markets are closed for the Golden Week holiday.

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