FIL has climbed back to around 1.20. How much will the end of vesting help?
After pulling back today, FIL has climbed back to around 1.20. I’m more inclined to think the rebound still has room to run over the next few days. $FIL broke out of its weekend trading range yesterday, and today it hasn’t given back those gains. An early allocation originally scheduled to vest over six years is also nearing completion. With fewer new coins entering circulation going forward, that could help the rebound continue.
As of 16:05 Beijing time, FIL/USDT spot on Binance was trading at around 1.2013 USDT, up about 12.5% over the rolling 24 hours. On the UTC daily chart, it reached a high of 1.2046 yesterday, then pulled back to 1.1443 earlier today before climbing again. It’s now back near yesterday’s high, but the daily candle hasn’t closed yet, so it’s still unclear whether it can hold there.
Filecoin’s mainnet launched in October 2020. The initial allocations of 300 million tokens to Protocol Labs and 100 million to the Filecoin Foundation were scheduled to vest gradually over six years. The network strategy announced in February this year also noted that the final tranche of network vesting would be completed this year. This means the original schedule is nearing its end; it would be inaccurate to say the project has just announced the destruction of 400 million tokens.
Once vesting ends, fewer new tokens will enter circulation. If buying demand doesn’t fall along with it, there will be slightly less supply pressure as the price continues to rise. But it’s impossible to tell from the chart alone how much of the rise over the past two days reflects traders pricing in this expectation ahead of time.
Tokens that have already vested can still be sold, and miner rewards haven’t stopped either. The current rebound could still be interrupted by profit-taking. If FIL falls back into the weekend range of around 1.03 to 1.08, this breakout will lose its edge. I’d then expect it to continue consolidating, rather than stay bullish just because vesting is nearing its end.
For now, I still expect the rebound to continue over the next few days, but whether it can recover over the long term is a separate question. A smaller increase in supply could help, but whether customers will keep paying for storage and how much the network can earn are separate matters.
#FIL #Filecoin #TokenVesting
After pulling back today, FIL has climbed back to around 1.20. I’m more inclined to think the rebound still has room to run over the next few days. $FIL broke out of its weekend trading range yesterday, and today it hasn’t given back those gains. An early allocation originally scheduled to vest over six years is also nearing completion. With fewer new coins entering circulation going forward, that could help the rebound continue.
As of 16:05 Beijing time, FIL/USDT spot on Binance was trading at around 1.2013 USDT, up about 12.5% over the rolling 24 hours. On the UTC daily chart, it reached a high of 1.2046 yesterday, then pulled back to 1.1443 earlier today before climbing again. It’s now back near yesterday’s high, but the daily candle hasn’t closed yet, so it’s still unclear whether it can hold there.
Filecoin’s mainnet launched in October 2020. The initial allocations of 300 million tokens to Protocol Labs and 100 million to the Filecoin Foundation were scheduled to vest gradually over six years. The network strategy announced in February this year also noted that the final tranche of network vesting would be completed this year. This means the original schedule is nearing its end; it would be inaccurate to say the project has just announced the destruction of 400 million tokens.
Once vesting ends, fewer new tokens will enter circulation. If buying demand doesn’t fall along with it, there will be slightly less supply pressure as the price continues to rise. But it’s impossible to tell from the chart alone how much of the rise over the past two days reflects traders pricing in this expectation ahead of time.
Tokens that have already vested can still be sold, and miner rewards haven’t stopped either. The current rebound could still be interrupted by profit-taking. If FIL falls back into the weekend range of around 1.03 to 1.08, this breakout will lose its edge. I’d then expect it to continue consolidating, rather than stay bullish just because vesting is nearing its end.
For now, I still expect the rebound to continue over the next few days, but whether it can recover over the long term is a separate question. A smaller increase in supply could help, but whether customers will keep paying for storage and how much the network can earn are separate matters.
#FIL #Filecoin #TokenVesting
