Some thoughts on whether $HYPE is currently overvalued
An institution previously conducted a probability-weighted valuation of HYPE. Based on fully diluted market capitalization, it calculated a fair price of about $106. At the time, the price was only around $56.
One thing I particularly appreciated about this valuation model was that it didn’t simply ignore the tokens the team would unlock in the future.
For every $1 Hyperliquid earns in fees, about 83 cents goes toward buybacks—a truly massive buyback effort. On the other hand, the team’s tokens are still being released over time.
A third-party calendar shows that about 9.92 million HYPE tokens are set to unlock on October 6, worth more than $800 million at the current price. On September 30, Hyperliquid Labs also unstaked 3.75 million tokens and sold them OTC to an institution. The specific terms of the transaction have not yet been disclosed.
HYPE hit a high of $97.96 on September 23 and has since fallen back to around $82.
So what I’m more concerned about now isn’t whether the report’s $106 valuation is accurate, but a very practical question:
Can the buying pressure created by buybacks actually absorb the steadily increasing supply?
If it can, the unlocks may turn out to be just a short-term headwind. If it can’t, then no matter how high the valuation is, the price will still have to contend with the release of those tokens.
An institution previously conducted a probability-weighted valuation of HYPE. Based on fully diluted market capitalization, it calculated a fair price of about $106. At the time, the price was only around $56.
One thing I particularly appreciated about this valuation model was that it didn’t simply ignore the tokens the team would unlock in the future.
For every $1 Hyperliquid earns in fees, about 83 cents goes toward buybacks—a truly massive buyback effort. On the other hand, the team’s tokens are still being released over time.
A third-party calendar shows that about 9.92 million HYPE tokens are set to unlock on October 6, worth more than $800 million at the current price. On September 30, Hyperliquid Labs also unstaked 3.75 million tokens and sold them OTC to an institution. The specific terms of the transaction have not yet been disclosed.
HYPE hit a high of $97.96 on September 23 and has since fallen back to around $82.
So what I’m more concerned about now isn’t whether the report’s $106 valuation is accurate, but a very practical question:
Can the buying pressure created by buybacks actually absorb the steadily increasing supply?
If it can, the unlocks may turn out to be just a short-term headwind. If it can’t, then no matter how high the valuation is, the price will still have to contend with the release of those tokens.
