$BNB The pullback to 782–786 that I mentioned yesterday arrived, and during the 10 a.m. hour today, price even probed down to 780.1. The further the price falls, the more people are going long; that makes me even less confident this level will hold.
From noon yesterday to now, the price has gone from 792 to 781.7. The long/short ratio of retail accounts rose from 2.13 to 2.25, with 69.2% of accounts long. The long/short ratio of large traders’ positions rose from 1.44 to 1.53. Both are 48-hour highs. The funding rate has risen for five consecutive periods, from 0.0024% at midnight yesterday to 0.0101% at 8 a.m. today; the last three increases all came after the retreat from 810. Over the same period, futures open interest fell from 614,400 contracts to 601,700, a drop of 2.1%. Those leaving look more like shorts taking profit, while longs have mostly stayed put.
The 4-hour EMA12/26/50 values are 785.5/782.3/777.8. Price has already slipped below the EMA12 and EMA26, leaving only the EMA50 as support. The 4-hour RSI(14) is 49.5, and the 1-hour low was 34.0—nowhere near oversold, so it’s hard to say the drop has gone too far.
Daily Bollinger Bands (20,2): middle band 773.9, upper band 801.3, lower band 746.5. The bandwidth has tightened from 14.9% on September 28 to 7.1%; over the past year, only about 13% of days had a narrower band. When it tightens this much, the move won’t be small once a direction emerges. Yesterday’s wick at 810 pierced the upper band before retreating. If the bands start opening downward today, the first level to watch is the middle band at 773.9.
Structurally, the daily lows have been rising from 750.47 to 760.35 to 782.15. Today’s 780.1 is the first time this cycle has broken below the previous low, though the daily candle has not closed yet. The highs have retreated from 810.0, and today price only reached 788.0.
I’m leaning bearish. Longs are getting increasingly crowded, yet price can’t lift its head. It’s more likely to head for 773.9 first; if the daily candle closes below 782.15, then 760 comes into view. If the 4-hour candle closes back above 786, that would show the bulls have genuinely caught this move, and this bearish view would be invalidated.
#BNB #技术分析 #合约数据
From noon yesterday to now, the price has gone from 792 to 781.7. The long/short ratio of retail accounts rose from 2.13 to 2.25, with 69.2% of accounts long. The long/short ratio of large traders’ positions rose from 1.44 to 1.53. Both are 48-hour highs. The funding rate has risen for five consecutive periods, from 0.0024% at midnight yesterday to 0.0101% at 8 a.m. today; the last three increases all came after the retreat from 810. Over the same period, futures open interest fell from 614,400 contracts to 601,700, a drop of 2.1%. Those leaving look more like shorts taking profit, while longs have mostly stayed put.
The 4-hour EMA12/26/50 values are 785.5/782.3/777.8. Price has already slipped below the EMA12 and EMA26, leaving only the EMA50 as support. The 4-hour RSI(14) is 49.5, and the 1-hour low was 34.0—nowhere near oversold, so it’s hard to say the drop has gone too far.
Daily Bollinger Bands (20,2): middle band 773.9, upper band 801.3, lower band 746.5. The bandwidth has tightened from 14.9% on September 28 to 7.1%; over the past year, only about 13% of days had a narrower band. When it tightens this much, the move won’t be small once a direction emerges. Yesterday’s wick at 810 pierced the upper band before retreating. If the bands start opening downward today, the first level to watch is the middle band at 773.9.
Structurally, the daily lows have been rising from 750.47 to 760.35 to 782.15. Today’s 780.1 is the first time this cycle has broken below the previous low, though the daily candle has not closed yet. The highs have retreated from 810.0, and today price only reached 788.0.
I’m leaning bearish. Longs are getting increasingly crowded, yet price can’t lift its head. It’s more likely to head for 773.9 first; if the daily candle closes below 782.15, then 760 comes into view. If the 4-hour candle closes back above 786, that would show the bulls have genuinely caught this move, and this bearish view would be invalidated.
#BNB #技术分析 #合约数据
