Iran’s oil minister resigning looks like a personnel change on the surface, but think about it: the U.S. is also passing along a new proposal through intermediaries. That timing is almost too convenient. Either there’s a chance of a deal, or things are already getting unsettled internally. Either way, something is definitely happening.
Looking at the market, $CL is now at 89.63, down 0.57% over the past 24 hours. You’d expect oil prices to tense up a bit after news like this from the Middle East, but they haven’t—which suggests the market either doesn’t believe supplies will be disrupted, or has already priced in this scenario. I’m leaning toward the latter. People have gotten way too used to trading on expectations.
$XAU 4126.64 is down a slight 0.34%, and safe-haven flows haven’t really budged either. That’s interesting: the two things that should be getting nervous aren’t. Either it’s the calm before the storm, or another false alarm. I think the odds favor a false alarm, but I’d keep some positions open—news like this can change overnight.
If you’re going to make a move, wait for $CL to break below support. Chasing it now just makes you fuel for the headlines.
#Gold
Looking at the market, $CL is now at 89.63, down 0.57% over the past 24 hours. You’d expect oil prices to tense up a bit after news like this from the Middle East, but they haven’t—which suggests the market either doesn’t believe supplies will be disrupted, or has already priced in this scenario. I’m leaning toward the latter. People have gotten way too used to trading on expectations.
$XAU 4126.64 is down a slight 0.34%, and safe-haven flows haven’t really budged either. That’s interesting: the two things that should be getting nervous aren’t. Either it’s the calm before the storm, or another false alarm. I think the odds favor a false alarm, but I’d keep some positions open—news like this can change overnight.
If you’re going to make a move, wait for $CL to break below support. Chasing it now just makes you fuel for the headlines.
#Gold