In $NEAR 24 hours, it rose nearly 8%, while contract open interest measured in coins actually fell 0.6%. This move wasn’t driven by leverage; retail traders are still shifting toward shorts.
Yesterday, I said that after the Bollinger Bands squeezed, the price would first test 5.2. This morning, the hourly high at 8 a.m. reached 5.370. From 4.865 at 1 p.m. yesterday to 5.234 now, the price is up 7.6%. Over the same period, OI went from 55.216 million coins to 54.864 million—there hasn’t been a single coin of net additions. The funding rate has stayed close to its 0.01% baseline; no one is paying a premium to chase longs.
Positioning is diverging. The large-trader long/short ratio rose from 2.45 to 2.86, with the long share increasing from 71% to 74%. The retail-account long/short ratio fell from 1.42 to 1.14, and the share of accounts going long dropped from 58.7% to 53.3%. As the price rises, retail traders are turning bearish, while large traders are adding longs.
The 4-hour EMA12/26/50 values are 5.082/4.993/4.904. At noon yesterday, EMA12 crossed above EMA26, putting the three EMAs in bullish alignment, and the price has been riding EMA12. The daily EMA12/26/50/200 values are 4.858/4.247/3.524/2.332, also in bullish alignment.
Daily ATR(14) has fallen from 0.508 on October 1 to 0.455, about 8.7% of the price. The current price is only 0.27–0.34 below the 5.506–5.578 range ceiling—less than one ATR away. The daily Bollinger Bands (20,2) have an upper band at 5.801 and a middle band at 4.624. The bandwidth has contracted from 122.9% on September 27 to 50.9%. The upper band is still above the range ceiling, leaving room to move higher.
Structurally, daily lows have risen from 4.590 to 4.604, 4.741, and 4.811 since October 2. After 8 a.m. today, the low was 5.217. Highs have climbed from 4.874 on October 3 to 5.050, 5.321, and 5.370. A short-term uptrend has taken shape within the range. The weakness is that aggressive spot buying accounted for only 51.9% today—not exactly a buying frenzy.
I remain bullish and expect a test of the 5.5–5.58 range ceiling this week. The more the price rises, the more people go short, which could provide even more fuel if it breaks through. I’ll downgrade my outlook if a 4-hour candle closes below the 4.99 EMA26. If the daily candle closes below 4.811, the chain of higher lows will be broken, and I’ll have been wrong.
#NEAR #山寨币 #Contract data
Yesterday, I said that after the Bollinger Bands squeezed, the price would first test 5.2. This morning, the hourly high at 8 a.m. reached 5.370. From 4.865 at 1 p.m. yesterday to 5.234 now, the price is up 7.6%. Over the same period, OI went from 55.216 million coins to 54.864 million—there hasn’t been a single coin of net additions. The funding rate has stayed close to its 0.01% baseline; no one is paying a premium to chase longs.
Positioning is diverging. The large-trader long/short ratio rose from 2.45 to 2.86, with the long share increasing from 71% to 74%. The retail-account long/short ratio fell from 1.42 to 1.14, and the share of accounts going long dropped from 58.7% to 53.3%. As the price rises, retail traders are turning bearish, while large traders are adding longs.
The 4-hour EMA12/26/50 values are 5.082/4.993/4.904. At noon yesterday, EMA12 crossed above EMA26, putting the three EMAs in bullish alignment, and the price has been riding EMA12. The daily EMA12/26/50/200 values are 4.858/4.247/3.524/2.332, also in bullish alignment.
Daily ATR(14) has fallen from 0.508 on October 1 to 0.455, about 8.7% of the price. The current price is only 0.27–0.34 below the 5.506–5.578 range ceiling—less than one ATR away. The daily Bollinger Bands (20,2) have an upper band at 5.801 and a middle band at 4.624. The bandwidth has contracted from 122.9% on September 27 to 50.9%. The upper band is still above the range ceiling, leaving room to move higher.
Structurally, daily lows have risen from 4.590 to 4.604, 4.741, and 4.811 since October 2. After 8 a.m. today, the low was 5.217. Highs have climbed from 4.874 on October 3 to 5.050, 5.321, and 5.370. A short-term uptrend has taken shape within the range. The weakness is that aggressive spot buying accounted for only 51.9% today—not exactly a buying frenzy.
I remain bullish and expect a test of the 5.5–5.58 range ceiling this week. The more the price rises, the more people go short, which could provide even more fuel if it breaks through. I’ll downgrade my outlook if a 4-hour candle closes below the 4.99 EMA26. If the daily candle closes below 4.811, the chain of higher lows will be broken, and I’ll have been wrong.
#NEAR #山寨币 #Contract data
