Market analysis for October 6:
① Bitcoin is still ranging between 83,500 and 86,500.
Although the daily MACD is showing a divergence, the market is still in an uptrend, currently trading above the daily 10-day moving average!
② Strategy: For spot, don't tinker with your positions over the longer timeframe or let short-term price moves influence you. For short-term trades, take profits in batches around this level. For futures, set your stop-losses: go short around 87,000 with a stop around 88,000; look for long entries around 84,000. Manage your own take-profit levels. In a ranging market, don't get greedy. Many traders are staying on the sidelines until the Fed announces its rate decision, so we shouldn't trade too aggressively or go all in either!
③ Market news: CPI inflation data will be released on October 14. If the CPI reading is favorable, a pause in rate hikes in October will be all but certain. Crypto markets often react in advance. The rate decision is at 2:00 a.m. on October 29, followed by Powell’s press conference at 2:30 a.m.
The federal funds rate is currently at 3.75%–4.00%. After the last surprisingly weak nonfarm payrolls report, the market expects the Fed to most likely hold steady in October (with odds around 80%). The key is the wording of the statement and Powell’s remarks—whether they are dovish or hawkish matters more than the rate decision itself. If the Fed pauses rate hikes and strikes a dovish tone (signaling that tightening is nearing its end), Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar could retreat, liquidity expectations could improve, and BTC would likely rebound, with the $87,000 or even $90,000 level potentially being tested again.
If the Fed unexpectedly hikes rates, or signals that another hike is coming in December, risk-free rates will continue to rise and funds will flow out of risk assets. BTC would come under pressure and could retest support at $82,500 or $80,000.
Even if the outcome is as expected (no rate hike), Powell’s remarks at the press conference could still trigger sharp market swings. Historically, we often see a “rise first, then fall” move—or a sharp move in the opposite direction. Leveraged positions are most likely to get liquidated at times like this! #币安推出BinanceIntelligence #美联储10月维持利率概率升至82.3%
