With rate hike expectations cooling, can crypto finally breathe a sigh of relief?
The easiest way to get caught out by macro data is to focus only on the half you want to see. The US ISM Services PMI for September, released last night, came in at 54.9, down from 55.4 in August, but remained in expansion territory. More noteworthy: the prices index rose from 72.6 to 74, while the employment index rebounded from 47.8 to 50.1. The economy has cooled somewhat, but cost pressures on businesses haven’t eased along with it.
This means that “slowing growth” doesn’t automatically mean “the Fed can ease up.” For BTC, easing concerns about another rate hike is one thing; actually getting an influx of looser money is another. The market can price in expectations ahead of time, but whether they materialize still depends on inflation data to come.
The minutes from the September meeting will be released at 2 a.m. Beijing time on October 8. I’ll be watching for divisions among officials over further rate hikes, and what conditions might persuade them to stop.
My take: don’t rush to treat one encouraging headline as confirmation of a trend this week. After the minutes are released, whether the dollar, Treasury yields, and BTC show a sustained reaction will be more telling than the first upward candle. If you’re trading futures, especially don’t let a single “bullish” headline decide your position for you. #美联储10月维持利率概率升至82.3%
The easiest way to get caught out by macro data is to focus only on the half you want to see. The US ISM Services PMI for September, released last night, came in at 54.9, down from 55.4 in August, but remained in expansion territory. More noteworthy: the prices index rose from 72.6 to 74, while the employment index rebounded from 47.8 to 50.1. The economy has cooled somewhat, but cost pressures on businesses haven’t eased along with it.
This means that “slowing growth” doesn’t automatically mean “the Fed can ease up.” For BTC, easing concerns about another rate hike is one thing; actually getting an influx of looser money is another. The market can price in expectations ahead of time, but whether they materialize still depends on inflation data to come.
The minutes from the September meeting will be released at 2 a.m. Beijing time on October 8. I’ll be watching for divisions among officials over further rate hikes, and what conditions might persuade them to stop.
My take: don’t rush to treat one encouraging headline as confirmation of a trend this week. After the minutes are released, whether the dollar, Treasury yields, and BTC show a sustained reaction will be more telling than the first upward candle. If you’re trading futures, especially don’t let a single “bullish” headline decide your position for you. #美联储10月维持利率概率升至82.3%
