$HYPE formed a base late last month, then rebounded along the uptrend line. It is currently around 94, with the MA20 turning upward and price above the moving averages; the medium-term moving-average structure is bullish.
However, the 4H candle that broke through the neckline saw only a moderate increase in volume, without a decisive volume surge. If the next few candles fail to bring in more volume, the chance of a false breakout remains significant. This is the key thing to watch right now.
Fundamentals are mixed. The positive factors include sustained passive buying: Circle is using about $6.07 billion in Treasury earnings for buybacks, with average daily buying power of around $500,000 (about 5,684 tokens per day). The burn rate has increased by about 25%, and the first 14.58 million USDC is already on its way.
This is compounded by expanded liquidity following Binance’s spot listing, as well as increased holdings by publicly listed companies and cross-chain expansion. On the downside, supply and selling pressure remain concerns.
About 3.75 million tokens (roughly $340 million) will be unlocked on October 6. Although they will be sold OTC to institutions and will not directly affect the market, what those institutions do next is unknown. On-chain whales have transferred about 71,000 tokens to exchanges, so short-term profit-taking pressure is real.
Overall, the structure is bullish, but the neckline breakout has yet to be confirmed by volume. If the price holds above 92 and volume picks up, the first upside target is around 100. If 92 fails, the price could return to a range of 86–92. Buybacks provide a medium-term buying floor, while the unlock and whale transfers limit short-term upside.
$HYPE
However, the 4H candle that broke through the neckline saw only a moderate increase in volume, without a decisive volume surge. If the next few candles fail to bring in more volume, the chance of a false breakout remains significant. This is the key thing to watch right now.
Fundamentals are mixed. The positive factors include sustained passive buying: Circle is using about $6.07 billion in Treasury earnings for buybacks, with average daily buying power of around $500,000 (about 5,684 tokens per day). The burn rate has increased by about 25%, and the first 14.58 million USDC is already on its way.
This is compounded by expanded liquidity following Binance’s spot listing, as well as increased holdings by publicly listed companies and cross-chain expansion. On the downside, supply and selling pressure remain concerns.
About 3.75 million tokens (roughly $340 million) will be unlocked on October 6. Although they will be sold OTC to institutions and will not directly affect the market, what those institutions do next is unknown. On-chain whales have transferred about 71,000 tokens to exchanges, so short-term profit-taking pressure is real.
Overall, the structure is bullish, but the neckline breakout has yet to be confirmed by volume. If the price holds above 92 and volume picks up, the first upside target is around 100. If 92 fails, the price could return to a range of 86–92. Buybacks provide a medium-term buying floor, while the unlock and whale transfers limit short-term upside.
$HYPE
