$ETH
Odds of the Fed holding rates steady in October climb to 82.3%
A 29,000 payroll gain crushed the case for more rate hikes
The rate-hike blade
has been put away again—for now
Holy crap,
guys,
the odds of the Fed holding rates steady in October
have surged to 82.3%.
The odds of a 25-basis-point hike are down to just 17.7%.
Take a look at that reversal.
Just a few weeks ago,
the market was betting on more than a 70% chance of an October hike.
Now those odds have completely collapsed.
These odds reflect where market participants are putting their money.
CME FedWatch tracks traders’ bets,
and 82.3% means the vast majority of market participants think
the Fed won’t raise rates at its October meeting
and will keep rates at their current elevated level.
Only a small minority expect a 25-basis-point hike.
There’s one key reason behind this reversal:
nonfarm payrolls.
The labor market is starting to cool,
so the Fed naturally has less reason to hit the brakes.
But there’s a catch:
no rate hike in October
doesn’t mean the Fed has turned dovish for good.
The market now actually sees
a 68.7% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike by December.
So this isn’t the Fed surrendering.
It’s more like
taking a month off
to see whether inflation will keep running wild.
For risk assets like BTC and ETH,
it’s obviously a chance to catch their breath in the short term.
But if the Fed really does swing again in December,
this current rally
might just mean the market got carried away too soon.
So the next thing to watch is the CPI data.
If CPI rebounds,
the odds of a rate hike could climb again pretty quickly.
Still, the U.S. economy is something else—
damn weak and strong at the same time.
What the hell is going on?
#美联储10月维持利率概率升至82.3%
Odds of the Fed holding rates steady in October climb to 82.3%
A 29,000 payroll gain crushed the case for more rate hikes
The rate-hike blade
has been put away again—for now
Holy crap,
guys,
the odds of the Fed holding rates steady in October
have surged to 82.3%.
The odds of a 25-basis-point hike are down to just 17.7%.
Take a look at that reversal.
Just a few weeks ago,
the market was betting on more than a 70% chance of an October hike.
Now those odds have completely collapsed.
These odds reflect where market participants are putting their money.
CME FedWatch tracks traders’ bets,
and 82.3% means the vast majority of market participants think
the Fed won’t raise rates at its October meeting
and will keep rates at their current elevated level.
Only a small minority expect a 25-basis-point hike.
There’s one key reason behind this reversal:
nonfarm payrolls.
The labor market is starting to cool,
so the Fed naturally has less reason to hit the brakes.
But there’s a catch:
no rate hike in October
doesn’t mean the Fed has turned dovish for good.
The market now actually sees
a 68.7% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike by December.
So this isn’t the Fed surrendering.
It’s more like
taking a month off
to see whether inflation will keep running wild.
For risk assets like BTC and ETH,
it’s obviously a chance to catch their breath in the short term.
But if the Fed really does swing again in December,
this current rally
might just mean the market got carried away too soon.
So the next thing to watch is the CPI data.
If CPI rebounds,
the odds of a rate hike could climb again pretty quickly.
Still, the U.S. economy is something else—
damn weak and strong at the same time.
What the hell is going on?
#美联储10月维持利率概率升至82.3%