$SOL fell below 119.6 last night. Based on what I said yesterday, this should have been the start of a long liquidation cascade, but the data shows that the cascade is mostly over.
The 1-hour candle at 22:00 last night plunged from 121.30 to 119.25, while contract open interest fell by 127,000 coins in that same hour. From 8.733 million coins at 8:00 yesterday morning to 8.275 million now, that’s a drop of 458,000 coins, or about 5.2%—roughly $55 million in leveraged positions exited at the current price. The funding rate also fell from 0.01% for three consecutive intervals yesterday to -0.0017% at the 00:00 interval today. The heat around chasing longs has completely cooled off.
The low was 118.93, just above the daily EMA12 (118.86). The daily EMA12/26/50/200 values are 118.86/114.24/106.73/94.78, and the bullish alignment remains intact.
The 4-hour Keltner Channel (EMA20, ATR20×1.5): middle band 120.38, upper band 122.82, lower band 117.94. The current price of 120.54 is right in the middle. The Bollinger Bands (20,2) on the same timeframe have upper and lower bands at 122.12/118.59, fully contracted inside the Keltner Channel. Since October 1, 22 of the 30 four-hour candles have been in this squeeze. It loosened once on October 4, pushing up to 122.29, but failed to hold and contracted again.
4-hour KDJ (9,3,3): K=46.4, D=48.7, J=42.0. J has rebounded from 9.9 at 20:00 last night, and K is close to D, preparing to cross above it.
Structurally, the daily highs have been stepping down: 124.95→123.76→122.29→122.08, while the lows have been stepping up: 116.73→117.11→118.93. The triangle is narrowing into a range of 118.9–122.1, less than 3%. After the washout, the large traders’ long/short position ratio is still 2.31 (2.35 yesterday)—it wasn’t the large traders who got washed out.
I’m retracting yesterday’s bearish view and turning bullish: 5% of leverage has been flushed out, the funding rate has turned negative, and the price held above the daily EMA12. The next likely move is a 4-hour close above 122.3, followed by a test of 123.76 and 124.95. If a 4-hour candle closes back below 118.9, yesterday’s liquidation-cascade scenario is back on the table—and that would mean I turned bullish too early this time.
#SOL #技术分析 #Contract Data
The 1-hour candle at 22:00 last night plunged from 121.30 to 119.25, while contract open interest fell by 127,000 coins in that same hour. From 8.733 million coins at 8:00 yesterday morning to 8.275 million now, that’s a drop of 458,000 coins, or about 5.2%—roughly $55 million in leveraged positions exited at the current price. The funding rate also fell from 0.01% for three consecutive intervals yesterday to -0.0017% at the 00:00 interval today. The heat around chasing longs has completely cooled off.
The low was 118.93, just above the daily EMA12 (118.86). The daily EMA12/26/50/200 values are 118.86/114.24/106.73/94.78, and the bullish alignment remains intact.
The 4-hour Keltner Channel (EMA20, ATR20×1.5): middle band 120.38, upper band 122.82, lower band 117.94. The current price of 120.54 is right in the middle. The Bollinger Bands (20,2) on the same timeframe have upper and lower bands at 122.12/118.59, fully contracted inside the Keltner Channel. Since October 1, 22 of the 30 four-hour candles have been in this squeeze. It loosened once on October 4, pushing up to 122.29, but failed to hold and contracted again.
4-hour KDJ (9,3,3): K=46.4, D=48.7, J=42.0. J has rebounded from 9.9 at 20:00 last night, and K is close to D, preparing to cross above it.
Structurally, the daily highs have been stepping down: 124.95→123.76→122.29→122.08, while the lows have been stepping up: 116.73→117.11→118.93. The triangle is narrowing into a range of 118.9–122.1, less than 3%. After the washout, the large traders’ long/short position ratio is still 2.31 (2.35 yesterday)—it wasn’t the large traders who got washed out.
I’m retracting yesterday’s bearish view and turning bullish: 5% of leverage has been flushed out, the funding rate has turned negative, and the price held above the daily EMA12. The next likely move is a 4-hour close above 122.3, followed by a test of 123.76 and 124.95. If a 4-hour candle closes back below 118.9, yesterday’s liquidation-cascade scenario is back on the table—and that would mean I turned bullish too early this time.
#SOL #技术分析 #Contract Data
