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$CDNS is at $353.48, $SNPS is at $488.47, and $KLAC is at $206.85. Over the past 14 days, all three have moved in the same direction, gaining between 23% and 29%. The divergence was already clear last Friday: the first design software stock closed up 0.61%, the second closed down 0.29%, while the equipment stock held flat and didn’t follow the decline. The two design stocks are jostling for position, while the equipment stock is sticking close.

The split between software and hardware comes down to AI computing demand shifting from “design” to “tape-out.” Design companies are winning orders first, but their margins are under pressure; equipment orders are being pushed back, but come with higher average selling prices. Since last year’s Q4, design customers have been shifting budgets from outright purchases to usage-based payments. In the short term, this benefits design companies but delays demand for equipment.

Trading volume has been strongest in the equipment stock over the past two weeks. Its 14-day gain of 23.6% is only a few percentage points short of the other stock’s 29.1%, and last Friday’s flat close at support steadied the momentum. Last Friday’s bullish reversal candle in the first design stock put an end to the volatility that began in late September. The second keeps seesawing as it closes lower, and is still $12 short of the $500 mark.

In the short term, all three are above their 14-day trendlines. The two design stocks are contending with resistance at $350 and $490, while the equipment stock just needs to hold above $205. Only a break below $200 would bring the equipment stock back in step with the Shanghai Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index.

#EDA分化 #芯片设计工具 #U.S. stocks