BTC clearly crossed the line, so why could a prediction contract still lose?
Seeing the candlestick chart move past a certain price and assuming that a contract on “above this line” has already won may be jumping to conclusions.
I checked an expired BTC contract on Robinhood: it expired at 1 a.m. on October 5, Eastern Daylight Time. The rules on the page said the final settlement price would be the average of the last 60 CF Benchmarks real-time index prices before expiration.
That’s not determined by whether the price on the exchange you’re watching crossed the threshold at any particular second.
Here’s a purely hypothetical example: if there’s only a brief spike above the threshold during that minute and all the other sampled prices are lower, the average may still fall short. Conversely, a final trade slightly below the threshold doesn’t, by itself, prove that the average over the whole period was below it.
When it comes to your money, buying a contract based on its settlement conditions and buying the coin itself involve different risks. When researching similar products tied to BTC, ETH, or SOL, be sure to check the data source, time zone, sampling window, and whether the condition is “touches” or “above at expiration.” Different contracts don’t necessarily follow the same rules.
My take: first confirm what counts as a win, then decide how bullish you are. This explains the settlement methodology; it doesn’t assess the outcome of that contract or treat the quoted price on the page as the true probability of winning.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #Trading Know-How
Tap my profile picture to see my live trades
Seeing the candlestick chart move past a certain price and assuming that a contract on “above this line” has already won may be jumping to conclusions.
I checked an expired BTC contract on Robinhood: it expired at 1 a.m. on October 5, Eastern Daylight Time. The rules on the page said the final settlement price would be the average of the last 60 CF Benchmarks real-time index prices before expiration.
That’s not determined by whether the price on the exchange you’re watching crossed the threshold at any particular second.
Here’s a purely hypothetical example: if there’s only a brief spike above the threshold during that minute and all the other sampled prices are lower, the average may still fall short. Conversely, a final trade slightly below the threshold doesn’t, by itself, prove that the average over the whole period was below it.
When it comes to your money, buying a contract based on its settlement conditions and buying the coin itself involve different risks. When researching similar products tied to BTC, ETH, or SOL, be sure to check the data source, time zone, sampling window, and whether the condition is “touches” or “above at expiration.” Different contracts don’t necessarily follow the same rules.
My take: first confirm what counts as a win, then decide how bullish you are. This explains the settlement methodology; it doesn’t assess the outcome of that contract or treat the quoted price on the page as the true probability of winning.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #Trading Know-How
Tap my profile picture to see my live trades
