The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.311%, its highest in a year; the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) also closed at a one-year high of 756.20 that same day. Normally, rising rates should pressure valuations, but I think the risk right now isn’t rates—it’s trading volume.
U.S. stocks closed higher on Monday: QQQ rose 0.88%, reaching an intraday high of 756.92; the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) gained 0.67% to 774.83, still short of its 8/13 close of 779.37. Since 9/18, the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed 31 basis points, from 4.998%, while QQQ has risen 4.8%. But QQQ traded only about 25.4 million shares that day, roughly 25% below its 20-day average of 33.9 million—the lowest volume in nearly 20 trading days. Among the big names, $NVDA led the way, rising 2.1% to 238.9, also a one-year high, on volume of 126 million shares, above average. Apple fell 0.24%, while Amazon was essentially flat.
Daily Keltner Channel (EMA20, ATR20×1.5): middle band 734.02, upper band 748.60, lower band 719.45. The close was 7.6 points above the upper band, putting it at about 1.26 channel widths. RSI(14) = 68.4, still below 70; it hasn’t entered overbought territory even once in the past 60 trading days. KDJ(9,3,3): K = 82.9, D = 78.9, J = 91.0. K spent four days below D, then turned back up on Monday; J hasn’t reached 100 yet.
The structure is a textbook HH/HL pattern: lows have risen from 700.00 on 9/16 to 731.63 on 9/28, while highs have advanced from 748.35 on 9/22 to 756.92. Around 748.4, the previous high and the Keltner upper band converge, making this the first support level; below that is 731.6. A move back below 748.4 would count as a failed breakout, while a drop below 731.6 would break the daily pattern of higher lows.
Crypto-related stocks are moving higher too: $MSTR rose 2.8%, COIN gained 2.9%, and IBIT added 1.7%, while miners MARA and RIOT continued to fall.
My take: this is a new high you can hold, but not one that’s easy to chase. After breaking above the Keltner upper band on declining volume, QQQ is more likely to first pull back and test the 748–749 area before making another run above 760. If the 10-year yield moves above Monday’s intraday high of 5.35%, the Nasdaq won’t be able to ignore it forever.
#美股 #纳斯达克 #TechnicalAnalysis
U.S. stocks closed higher on Monday: QQQ rose 0.88%, reaching an intraday high of 756.92; the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) gained 0.67% to 774.83, still short of its 8/13 close of 779.37. Since 9/18, the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed 31 basis points, from 4.998%, while QQQ has risen 4.8%. But QQQ traded only about 25.4 million shares that day, roughly 25% below its 20-day average of 33.9 million—the lowest volume in nearly 20 trading days. Among the big names, $NVDA led the way, rising 2.1% to 238.9, also a one-year high, on volume of 126 million shares, above average. Apple fell 0.24%, while Amazon was essentially flat.
Daily Keltner Channel (EMA20, ATR20×1.5): middle band 734.02, upper band 748.60, lower band 719.45. The close was 7.6 points above the upper band, putting it at about 1.26 channel widths. RSI(14) = 68.4, still below 70; it hasn’t entered overbought territory even once in the past 60 trading days. KDJ(9,3,3): K = 82.9, D = 78.9, J = 91.0. K spent four days below D, then turned back up on Monday; J hasn’t reached 100 yet.
The structure is a textbook HH/HL pattern: lows have risen from 700.00 on 9/16 to 731.63 on 9/28, while highs have advanced from 748.35 on 9/22 to 756.92. Around 748.4, the previous high and the Keltner upper band converge, making this the first support level; below that is 731.6. A move back below 748.4 would count as a failed breakout, while a drop below 731.6 would break the daily pattern of higher lows.
Crypto-related stocks are moving higher too: $MSTR rose 2.8%, COIN gained 2.9%, and IBIT added 1.7%, while miners MARA and RIOT continued to fall.
My take: this is a new high you can hold, but not one that’s easy to chase. After breaking above the Keltner upper band on declining volume, QQQ is more likely to first pull back and test the 748–749 area before making another run above 760. If the 10-year yield moves above Monday’s intraday high of 5.35%, the Nasdaq won’t be able to ignore it forever.
#美股 #纳斯达克 #TechnicalAnalysis
