Same U.S., so why did the services data move in opposite directions?
In the September data released on October 5, the final S&P Global U.S. Services PMI rose to 58.8 from 56.5, while the ISM Services PMI fell from 55.4 to 54.9. Looking at just one screenshot could easily lead to a completely different trading conclusion.
Before rushing to pick the number you like, note that S&P Global uses its business activity index as the headline reading for its services survey. ISM’s headline figure combines four components: activity, new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries.
The surveys also cover different groups. The former covers private-sector services companies; the latter has a broader non-manufacturing scope that also includes construction, government services, and more. They are not the same group of companies answering the same question.
So you can’t simply subtract 54.9 from 58.8 and treat the result as a measure of how much “stronger” the economy is. Even when comparing the activity components, you need to account for the different sample coverage; you can’t assume that this fully explains the gap.
When I look at data like this, I first check what evidence my original trading thesis needs, then see whether orders and employment point in the same direction. BTC, ETH, and SOL are all affected by interest rates and risk appetite, but a single survey’s rise or fall can’t tell you which way crypto prices will go.
When the data diverge, first make sure you’re comparing like with like, then draw your conclusions. Image: file photo of New York City’s restaurant industry.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #Macro
Tap my profile picture to view my live trades and trade calls
In the September data released on October 5, the final S&P Global U.S. Services PMI rose to 58.8 from 56.5, while the ISM Services PMI fell from 55.4 to 54.9. Looking at just one screenshot could easily lead to a completely different trading conclusion.
Before rushing to pick the number you like, note that S&P Global uses its business activity index as the headline reading for its services survey. ISM’s headline figure combines four components: activity, new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries.
The surveys also cover different groups. The former covers private-sector services companies; the latter has a broader non-manufacturing scope that also includes construction, government services, and more. They are not the same group of companies answering the same question.
So you can’t simply subtract 54.9 from 58.8 and treat the result as a measure of how much “stronger” the economy is. Even when comparing the activity components, you need to account for the different sample coverage; you can’t assume that this fully explains the gap.
When I look at data like this, I first check what evidence my original trading thesis needs, then see whether orders and employment point in the same direction. BTC, ETH, and SOL are all affected by interest rates and risk appetite, but a single survey’s rise or fall can’t tell you which way crypto prices will go.
When the data diverge, first make sure you’re comparing like with like, then draw your conclusions. Image: file photo of New York City’s restaurant industry.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #Macro
Tap my profile picture to view my live trades and trade calls
