$AR This drop is pretty interesting: price is falling, but OI has been declining right along with it—a classic deleveraging move, not a sell-off driven by fresh shorts entering.
The 15m candle closed below the lows of nearly 20 recent 5m candles. Aggressive trade imbalance was -54.9%, the buy/sell ratio was 0.29, and selling pressure was overwhelmingly one-sided. Yet volume surged to 2.66x, with a volatility Z-score of 2.56, clearly showing that positions are being aggressively unwound around this level.
The OI percentile is already at 98.8%, ranking second for anomalies across the entire pool, while funding rates remain in the upper end of their recent range—leverage had been far too crowded. Nominal OI is now down 2.29% over 1h, as long stops and forced reductions gradually play out over several consecutive periods.
I’m not keen to chase shorts in this kind of setup. Once leverage has been flushed to an extreme, it’s worth watching for signs that the decline is stabilizing. I’ll keep an eye on it.
The 15m candle closed below the lows of nearly 20 recent 5m candles. Aggressive trade imbalance was -54.9%, the buy/sell ratio was 0.29, and selling pressure was overwhelmingly one-sided. Yet volume surged to 2.66x, with a volatility Z-score of 2.56, clearly showing that positions are being aggressively unwound around this level.
The OI percentile is already at 98.8%, ranking second for anomalies across the entire pool, while funding rates remain in the upper end of their recent range—leverage had been far too crowded. Nominal OI is now down 2.29% over 1h, as long stops and forced reductions gradually play out over several consecutive periods.
I’m not keen to chase shorts in this kind of setup. Once leverage has been flushed to an extreme, it’s worth watching for signs that the decline is stabilizing. I’ll keep an eye on it.