10.6 Chen Jie Morning Analysis
The aftereffects of Monday’s post-NFP whipsaw are still being absorbed. Official reserves remain steady (+20.22 tonnes), while ETF holdings saw a slight inflow of +0.57 tonnes, providing some short-term support for a weak recovery from lower levels. However, price opened at 4142, reached a morning high of just 4145, and is now trading around 4141. With strong pressure from the medium- and long-term moving averages, short-term rebound momentum is gradually running out. The firm intraday bias is to sell rallies in line with the trend near key resistance.
The daily moving-average system is bearishly aligned. The Bollinger middle band continues to slope down, pressuring price at 4262, while the lower band points to 4083. The MACD histogram remains deeply negative; any rebound is merely a weak recovery within the broader downtrend.
The 4-hour Bollinger middle band has moved down to 4158, while the 1-hour middle band is capping price at 4146. Price has remained below the middle band around 4141. On the 15-minute chart, the rebound has already stalled near the upper Bollinger band at 4147, showing signs of resistance.
The first support zone below is Monday’s low at 4123 and the 4-hour Bollinger lower band at 4120. If a bearish candle breaks decisively below this platform, price will test the previous major low at 4110, and could even head straight toward the daily Bollinger lower band around 4083.
Trading strategy
Sell around 4150–4160, targeting 4120–4090–4060, with a stop at 4174#xau $XAU
The aftereffects of Monday’s post-NFP whipsaw are still being absorbed. Official reserves remain steady (+20.22 tonnes), while ETF holdings saw a slight inflow of +0.57 tonnes, providing some short-term support for a weak recovery from lower levels. However, price opened at 4142, reached a morning high of just 4145, and is now trading around 4141. With strong pressure from the medium- and long-term moving averages, short-term rebound momentum is gradually running out. The firm intraday bias is to sell rallies in line with the trend near key resistance.
The daily moving-average system is bearishly aligned. The Bollinger middle band continues to slope down, pressuring price at 4262, while the lower band points to 4083. The MACD histogram remains deeply negative; any rebound is merely a weak recovery within the broader downtrend.
The 4-hour Bollinger middle band has moved down to 4158, while the 1-hour middle band is capping price at 4146. Price has remained below the middle band around 4141. On the 15-minute chart, the rebound has already stalled near the upper Bollinger band at 4147, showing signs of resistance.
The first support zone below is Monday’s low at 4123 and the 4-hour Bollinger lower band at 4120. If a bearish candle breaks decisively below this platform, price will test the previous major low at 4110, and could even head straight toward the daily Bollinger lower band around 4083.
Trading strategy
Sell around 4150–4160, targeting 4120–4090–4060, with a stop at 4174#xau $XAU
