I came across some fresh market research from Glassnode. I decided to read it, dig deeper, and compare it with my own findings and market theses. I’ll also note that Glassnode analysts’ opinions change about as often as the weather, so I use their figures in my analysis but run their conclusions through my own framework.

The price is holding near 86,000 and closed the week up about 2%, but the picture beneath the surface is more interesting than just a green candle.

Where we agree and where we don't

The market looks like a tug-of-war right now. On one side, long-term holders are actively taking profits: nearly 3/4 of the supply is in profit, ETF MVRV is above normal, and realized profits are rising. On the other side, new buyers are confidently absorbing that supply for now, which is exactly why the price isn't falling. I fully agree with Glassnode here.

The overheating isn't coming from futures. Leverage has been flushed, open interest has declined, and futures sellers have nearly disappeared. That means the rally is being driven by spot demand and fresh capital, not speculative froth. It's healthier than it looked a week ago.

From here, though, I'm more cautious. The share of short-term holders and “hot” money is growing, and these are the hands most likely to panic at a pullback. ETF inflows have fallen by nearly 90%, and as soon as fresh money stops offsetting profit-taking, the balance could quickly shift toward sellers. There's also plenty of liquidity sitting below the lows.

How this fits with our plan

The BTC short remains in play. Rising funding with flushed open interest is exactly the fuel for a squeeze higher. A move toward the highs and a sweep of late shorts would remain an ideal spot to add to the position near 88,400, if price gets pulled up there. Targets: 82,828 and 80,819, then 79,800. Invalidation: a close above 89,000.

The week's main catalyst: the FOMC minutes on Wednesday. If fresh capital keeps flowing in after that, we'll have to rethink the correction scenario, so we'll make each decision only after confirmation.

Data matters, but trades are executed by the chart, not the weather forecast 🤝