【Is the 2019 script playing out again? What will BNB do this time?】
Do you ever get the feeling that BNB’s current situation looks a lot like the second half of 2019?
Back then, the BTC halving was priced in, and the market started betting on major altcoins catching up. But the gains felt awkward—three steps forward, two steps back. It was basically “up, but not all the way up.” Retail traders were getting impatient, while seasoned crypto veterans stayed calm. BNB is up 3.2% over the past 7 days and down 0.2% over the past 24 hours. Sound familiar?
Here’s my take: over the next 7 days, I’m leaning ⬆️ bullish.
I have three reasons.
First, a 42.5% pullback from the high puts us in a range that has historically caught the attention of long-term investors. After I got burned in 2017, I looked back at the trading records of a lot of big players and noticed that they tended to build their real positions when prices had fallen to levels that “looked like they could keep dropping, but had already been painful for a long time.”
Second, the Fear & Greed Index is at 70. That’s not exactly crazy, but it’s not exactly rational either. This kind of “divided, but not fearful” sentiment is often the most comfortable window for bulls to make a move. When FNG spikes to 80 or 90, that’s when you should start getting cautious.
Third—and most practically—trading volume hasn’t picked up, which suggests most people are still sitting on the sidelines. Those waiting have only two choices in the end: either wait for a lower price or eventually chase the rally. And the moment they jump in becomes fuel for the move.
But I should be clear about what would make me think I’m wrong.
If volume suddenly surges but the price can’t move higher, that means someone’s getting out, and I’ll admit defeat on that divergence. If BNB falls below that 769 support level, we’ll need to redraw the technical chart. If FNG climbs above 80 and keeps rising, then this might not be the “slow bull market” I’m expecting—it could be the final frenzy.
I get it—I saw a similar market setup in 2017. People were hesitant, volume was low, and everyone was waiting for a signal. The market rose for a while, then came crashing back down. So I’m bullish now, but don’t take that as an instruction.
What’s your mindset right now? Are you willing to take a chance on this BNB move, or are you itching to jump in?
Do you ever get the feeling that BNB’s current situation looks a lot like the second half of 2019?
Back then, the BTC halving was priced in, and the market started betting on major altcoins catching up. But the gains felt awkward—three steps forward, two steps back. It was basically “up, but not all the way up.” Retail traders were getting impatient, while seasoned crypto veterans stayed calm. BNB is up 3.2% over the past 7 days and down 0.2% over the past 24 hours. Sound familiar?
Here’s my take: over the next 7 days, I’m leaning ⬆️ bullish.
I have three reasons.
First, a 42.5% pullback from the high puts us in a range that has historically caught the attention of long-term investors. After I got burned in 2017, I looked back at the trading records of a lot of big players and noticed that they tended to build their real positions when prices had fallen to levels that “looked like they could keep dropping, but had already been painful for a long time.”
Second, the Fear & Greed Index is at 70. That’s not exactly crazy, but it’s not exactly rational either. This kind of “divided, but not fearful” sentiment is often the most comfortable window for bulls to make a move. When FNG spikes to 80 or 90, that’s when you should start getting cautious.
Third—and most practically—trading volume hasn’t picked up, which suggests most people are still sitting on the sidelines. Those waiting have only two choices in the end: either wait for a lower price or eventually chase the rally. And the moment they jump in becomes fuel for the move.
But I should be clear about what would make me think I’m wrong.
If volume suddenly surges but the price can’t move higher, that means someone’s getting out, and I’ll admit defeat on that divergence. If BNB falls below that 769 support level, we’ll need to redraw the technical chart. If FNG climbs above 80 and keeps rising, then this might not be the “slow bull market” I’m expecting—it could be the final frenzy.
I get it—I saw a similar market setup in 2017. People were hesitant, volume was low, and everyone was waiting for a signal. The market rose for a while, then came crashing back down. So I’m bullish now, but don’t take that as an instruction.
What’s your mindset right now? Are you willing to take a chance on this BNB move, or are you itching to jump in?