The same Fed pricing: the headline says 82.3%, while the body says 77.9%.
Both numbers refer to the same thing: the probability that rates will remain unchanged in October. The difference is 4.4 percentage points.
The other side of the probability is a 25-basis-point rate hike, at 22.1%. The headline picked the more flattering number.
It’s like a scale with two weights, each showing a different reading. Analysts trust only the one that matches reality.
Bullish readers focus on 82.3%; risk-conscious readers focus on 22.1%. The same news, two different takeaways.
Headlines have been more optimistic than the body before.
If the two figures converge on the same number, this interpretation no longer holds.
#ProbabilityOfFedHoldingRatesSteadyInOctoberRisesTo82.3%
Both numbers refer to the same thing: the probability that rates will remain unchanged in October. The difference is 4.4 percentage points.
The other side of the probability is a 25-basis-point rate hike, at 22.1%. The headline picked the more flattering number.
It’s like a scale with two weights, each showing a different reading. Analysts trust only the one that matches reality.
Bullish readers focus on 82.3%; risk-conscious readers focus on 22.1%. The same news, two different takeaways.
Headlines have been more optimistic than the body before.
If the two figures converge on the same number, this interpretation no longer holds.
#ProbabilityOfFedHoldingRatesSteadyInOctoberRisesTo82.3%