⚡ SHORT breakout confirmed by a closed 5m candle near the 120.41 level.
close 119.41 / level 120.41 · volume 0.92× / benchmark 1.25×
📉 SHORT · $SOL (SOL/USDT) · downside scenario · 15m context, 15m indicators, 5m trigger
📉 Event: A structural breakdown to the downside was confirmed by a 15m close; the 5m retest has not occurred yet.
📊 MARKET
💵 Price: $119.46 · 1h +0.05% · 24h -1.85%.
💧 Over the last 1h: volume $10,591,354.1154 · trades 28 276.
📊 M5 activity: volume $616,297.354 · trades 1 707 · Activity score 46/100.
📚 Order book ±1%: depth $8,290,246.0453 · spread 0.01%.
🛡️ DATA CHECK AND MARKET TYPE
✅ Data audit: passed · 5m passed · 15m passed.
✅ Market quality: passed.
🛡️ Risk assessment: BLOCKED · required checks not passed · potential profit is below the minimum reward/risk ❗
🏷️ Context: Spot · analytical hypothesis about a possible sale of an asset already held in the Spot portfolio; no short position is opened.
🧭 TECHNICAL OVERVIEW
🧭 Trigger status: the breakout event was published separately; a retest is required to confirm the setup.
📉 A structural break downward has been recorded.
🔎 Trigger check:
↩️ EMA50 retest: no ❗
🕯️ 5m close with a downward rejection: no ❗
💧 Volume relative to median: no data · filter not passed ❗
💰 Close: $119.41.
🔵 Trigger level: $120.4123.
🕯️ 5m candle context: ⚠️ No suitable bearish zone for candle validation · reason: · No confirmed zone in this direction. ❗
📉 SHORT context: price below EMA50 and VWAP (15m).
📐 Price below EMA 21 for the selected context.
📊 Indicators for the selected context:
〽️ EMA 21: $119.935 · price below
〽️ EMA 50: $120.4123 · price below
〽️ EMA 200: $120.6471 · price below
⚖️ VWAP: $120.7901 · price below
🌡️ RSI 14: 42.5
🧱 STRUCTURE AND PD ARRAY
🗓️ Higher-timeframe 1D filter: mixed structure · neutral context · major swing levels: support $116.32 · resistance $123.76. D1 sets the context, but does not override the 15m zone and 5m trigger.
📐 24h Dealing Range: $118.93–$122.29 · EQ $120.61 · price in Discount · source: closed 15m candles over the last 24h.
🧱 No verified OB/BB/PD Array found in the required half of the range ❗
💎 For SHORT, Premium zones (the upper half of the range) are considered; Discount alone does not strengthen the sell scenario. ❗
⚠️ Scenario BLOCKED: potential profit is below the minimum reward/risk. Publication requires separate operator confirmation; the system did not approve the scenario.
🧭 Pilot Fibonacci SHORT model · 15m: the correction has not yet reached 38.2% of the impulse.
📐 Downward impulse: $121.3 → $119.25 · structure break; body 2.21× median · volume 3.70× median.
↩️ Correction: 5 countertrend candles · depth 24.9% · 38.2–61.8% zone ($120.0331–$120.5169).
🔵 Confirmation: 15m close below $119.5.
🛑 Pilot scenario invalidation: 15m close above $120.8613 (78.6% of the impulse).
🧪 This is a separate observational model: it does not currently change the auto-publication filters; probability has not been calculated.
🎯 OBSERVATION PLAN
🔻 SHORT entry: 5m close below $120.4123 · wait for confirmation.
🛑 SHORT stop/invalidation: 5m close above $120.79.
🎯 SHORT TP1 · 1R: $120.0347 · theoretical level.
🏁 SHORT TP2 · 2R: $119.657 · theoretical level.
⚠️ No Premium zone found; these levels are a technical fallback, not an OB/BB or supply zone.
🔵 Confirmation: wait for a retest of the 15m EMA50 ($120.4123) and a 5m close below it with volume confirmation.
🛑 Invalidation: 5m close above the confirmed swing high at $120.79.
🧪 STATISTICS
📈 Confirmed downward impulses over the last 24h: 3 impulses.
🎲 Probability: no numerical percentage calculated — retest outcomes have not yet been collected and verified ❗
⚠️ Analytical draft, not a trading recommendation or an instruction to trade. Verify the levels against the chart and consider your own risk ❗
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