**⚠️ Is the market really pricing in SpaceX’s lockup expiration risk?**
I’m more cautious now, even leaning bearish.
The reason isn’t that I’m convinced insiders will definitely sell. It’s that when a stock faces a potential increase in its public float, the market has to reassess supply and demand.
My core logic:
🔻 **First, a lockup expiration doesn’t mean shareholders will sell, but it does mean potential selling pressure deserves attention.** Shares that become eligible for sale won’t necessarily all be sold; what really matters is the amount actually sold and the market’s capacity to absorb it.
🔻 **Second, a stronger share price doesn’t mean less risk.** If the market focuses only on the growth narrative while ignoring new supply and valuation, volatility could spike quickly once buying weakens.
🔻 **Third, the gap between expectations and reality may matter more than the good news itself.** If the market has already priced in future growth, even positive news may not be enough to push the share price higher.
So my strategy isn’t to short blindly. I’ll wait for the price to weaken, a key support level to break, or clearer evidence of selling pressure before considering whether to act.
**Bulls, answer one question: If you believe the lockup expiration poses absolutely no risk, what’s your reasoning?**
$SPCX
I’m more cautious now, even leaning bearish.
The reason isn’t that I’m convinced insiders will definitely sell. It’s that when a stock faces a potential increase in its public float, the market has to reassess supply and demand.
My core logic:
🔻 **First, a lockup expiration doesn’t mean shareholders will sell, but it does mean potential selling pressure deserves attention.** Shares that become eligible for sale won’t necessarily all be sold; what really matters is the amount actually sold and the market’s capacity to absorb it.
🔻 **Second, a stronger share price doesn’t mean less risk.** If the market focuses only on the growth narrative while ignoring new supply and valuation, volatility could spike quickly once buying weakens.
🔻 **Third, the gap between expectations and reality may matter more than the good news itself.** If the market has already priced in future growth, even positive news may not be enough to push the share price higher.
So my strategy isn’t to short blindly. I’ll wait for the price to weaken, a key support level to break, or clearer evidence of selling pressure before considering whether to act.
**Bulls, answer one question: If you believe the lockup expiration poses absolutely no risk, what’s your reasoning?**
$SPCX