GTC’s drop was pretty decisive: it plunged nearly 10% in 15 minutes, with volume rising to 2.28 times normal levels. It looks like longs are cutting their own positions: OI is falling on both the 15m and 1h charts. Price down + open interest down is a classic deleveraging pattern, not fresh shorts entering.
OI is at the 98.2nd percentile for unusual activity, ranking third across the entire pool, and notional change is also near the top. At levels like this, either panic selling is being released in a concentrated wave, or someone knew something ahead of time. The buy/sell ratio is 0.82 and the aggressive trade imbalance is -10.2%: sellers are in control. But note that we haven’t seen an OI surge, so this looks more like a chain of stop-losses than new short positions being opened.
The close has already broken below the lows of the last 20 or so 5m candles. If you’re looking to buy the dip, at least wait for a signal that price is stabilizing on lower volume. In this market, trying to catch the falling knife could leave you grabbing the blade by the handle.
OI is at the 98.2nd percentile for unusual activity, ranking third across the entire pool, and notional change is also near the top. At levels like this, either panic selling is being released in a concentrated wave, or someone knew something ahead of time. The buy/sell ratio is 0.82 and the aggressive trade imbalance is -10.2%: sellers are in control. But note that we haven’t seen an OI surge, so this looks more like a chain of stop-losses than new short positions being opened.
The close has already broken below the lows of the last 20 or so 5m candles. If you’re looking to buy the dip, at least wait for a signal that price is stabilizing on lower volume. In this market, trying to catch the falling knife could leave you grabbing the blade by the handle.
