#美联储10月维持利率概率升至82.3%
Last Friday’s jobs report was one of the ugliest of the year.. But Bitcoin needed just one weekend to read it as good news for itself.
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The U.S. added just 29,000 jobs in September, about a third of what the market expected, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%.. Even more striking were the revisions: July’s figure was flipped from a gain of 21,000 to a loss of 10,000, August’s was revised down from 162,000 to 133,000, and wage growth also slowed to 3.0%. By the usual economic measures, this was a grim report.
But the market runs on a different calculation.. Before the data came out, bond traders put the odds of a rate hike in October at 64%; afterward, that figure fell to around 16% to 22%. That shift lifted the ceiling for risk assets.
Keep in mind, the Fed had just raised rates by 25 basis points on September 16, bringing them to 3.75%–4%.. And in early September, an overheated jobs report was enough to knock Bitcoin down 2% in a day, to around $79,300. Now it’s hovering near $86,100, about 8% above that low. The same jobs report, read in two completely opposite ways.
So what’s driving Bitcoin’s price this time isn’t “how well the economy is doing,” but “how expensive money is”.. As the economy cools and rate-hike expectations fade, the denominator loosens—and these non-yielding assets are among the first to move. The market sentiment index is back at 68, still in “Greed” territory, but not as extreme as last month.
The technical picture is also lining up.. On the daily chart, Bitcoin has just formed a stronger “golden cross.” This confirms a trend; it isn’t a forecasting tool. It shows that the direction of the recent move has taken shape, but doesn’t guarantee the next leg will accelerate.
The flow of funds is even more telling.. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $190 million in net inflows in a single day. Altcoins rose across the board, but almost none gained more than 1%—only one token in the on-chain perpetuals sector rose nearly 3.7% in a day. The major players are steady, while money at the margins is beginning to test the higher-volatility end of the market.
The real thing to watch is the Fed’s October 28 meeting.. If the Fed really does pause, this “bad data equals good assets” trend could continue. But if inflation data or long-term yields start climbing again, this whole calculation could reverse immediately—and the assets that tend to get hit hardest are often the ones currently rising most smoothly.
Last Friday’s jobs report was one of the ugliest of the year.. But Bitcoin needed just one weekend to read it as good news for itself.
🔄 进群看叙事
The U.S. added just 29,000 jobs in September, about a third of what the market expected, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%.. Even more striking were the revisions: July’s figure was flipped from a gain of 21,000 to a loss of 10,000, August’s was revised down from 162,000 to 133,000, and wage growth also slowed to 3.0%. By the usual economic measures, this was a grim report.
But the market runs on a different calculation.. Before the data came out, bond traders put the odds of a rate hike in October at 64%; afterward, that figure fell to around 16% to 22%. That shift lifted the ceiling for risk assets.
Keep in mind, the Fed had just raised rates by 25 basis points on September 16, bringing them to 3.75%–4%.. And in early September, an overheated jobs report was enough to knock Bitcoin down 2% in a day, to around $79,300. Now it’s hovering near $86,100, about 8% above that low. The same jobs report, read in two completely opposite ways.
So what’s driving Bitcoin’s price this time isn’t “how well the economy is doing,” but “how expensive money is”.. As the economy cools and rate-hike expectations fade, the denominator loosens—and these non-yielding assets are among the first to move. The market sentiment index is back at 68, still in “Greed” territory, but not as extreme as last month.
The technical picture is also lining up.. On the daily chart, Bitcoin has just formed a stronger “golden cross.” This confirms a trend; it isn’t a forecasting tool. It shows that the direction of the recent move has taken shape, but doesn’t guarantee the next leg will accelerate.
The flow of funds is even more telling.. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $190 million in net inflows in a single day. Altcoins rose across the board, but almost none gained more than 1%—only one token in the on-chain perpetuals sector rose nearly 3.7% in a day. The major players are steady, while money at the margins is beginning to test the higher-volatility end of the market.
The real thing to watch is the Fed’s October 28 meeting.. If the Fed really does pause, this “bad data equals good assets” trend could continue. But if inflation data or long-term yields start climbing again, this whole calculation could reverse immediately—and the assets that tend to get hit hardest are often the ones currently rising most smoothly.
