U.S. stocks strengthen, ETF flows diverge: BTC has buying support, while ETH, SOL, and HYPE still need validation from their respective fundamentals.
During U.S. trading on October 5, the S&P 500 rose and the Nasdaq hit a new high, but the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained around 5.296%. Risk appetite held up, but high financing costs have yet to ease.
BTC: U.S. spot ETFs saw net inflows of USD 189.9 million on October 2, with IBIT contributing USD 158.2 million. ETF purchases provide capital support; whether they persist is the next thing to watch.
ETH: Spot ETFs saw net outflows of USD 37.4 million that day, marking four consecutive trading days of net outflows. ETF demand is weaker than for BTC; to assess whether ETH's own fundamentals are improving, we still need to look at on-chain usage and revenue.
SOL: On-chain stablecoin market cap was USD 16.586 billion, up 0.94% over seven days; DEX trading volume over the past seven days was USD 14.793 billion, down 13.32% from the previous week. Capital balances edged up, while trading activity continued to cool.
HYPE: Hyperliquid's perpetuals trading volume over the past seven days was USD 41.526 billion, with open interest across the platform at USD 8.370 billion. The platform's trading volume is substantial, but OI represents leveraged positions and should not be treated as spot capital inflows into HYPE.
My assessment: In the short term, strength in U.S. stocks may boost crypto sentiment. The medium-term market still depends on sustained ETF purchases and genuine on-chain demand. If high yields further compress valuations, or leverage grows faster than spot buying, volatility risk will increase.
A question worth asking this week: Can new ETF inflows improve in tandem with on-chain demand?
Data check: 11 p.m. Beijing time, October 5; ETF data is for October 2 only, while on-chain data uses a rolling seven-day period.
Main sources: Reuters, Farside Investors, DefiLlama.$SPCX $BTC
During U.S. trading on October 5, the S&P 500 rose and the Nasdaq hit a new high, but the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained around 5.296%. Risk appetite held up, but high financing costs have yet to ease.
BTC: U.S. spot ETFs saw net inflows of USD 189.9 million on October 2, with IBIT contributing USD 158.2 million. ETF purchases provide capital support; whether they persist is the next thing to watch.
ETH: Spot ETFs saw net outflows of USD 37.4 million that day, marking four consecutive trading days of net outflows. ETF demand is weaker than for BTC; to assess whether ETH's own fundamentals are improving, we still need to look at on-chain usage and revenue.
SOL: On-chain stablecoin market cap was USD 16.586 billion, up 0.94% over seven days; DEX trading volume over the past seven days was USD 14.793 billion, down 13.32% from the previous week. Capital balances edged up, while trading activity continued to cool.
HYPE: Hyperliquid's perpetuals trading volume over the past seven days was USD 41.526 billion, with open interest across the platform at USD 8.370 billion. The platform's trading volume is substantial, but OI represents leveraged positions and should not be treated as spot capital inflows into HYPE.
My assessment: In the short term, strength in U.S. stocks may boost crypto sentiment. The medium-term market still depends on sustained ETF purchases and genuine on-chain demand. If high yields further compress valuations, or leverage grows faster than spot buying, volatility risk will increase.
A question worth asking this week: Can new ETF inflows improve in tandem with on-chain demand?
Data check: 11 p.m. Beijing time, October 5; ETF data is for October 2 only, while on-chain data uses a rolling seven-day period.
Main sources: Reuters, Farside Investors, DefiLlama.$SPCX $BTC