The Fed staying put in October has become almost a consensus in CME pricing.
👉 我每天盯的价位清单、判断更正，都先发群里。进来对着看
One set of numbers: the probability of rates remaining unchanged in October is 82.3%. The market is treating this meeting as all but a foregone conclusion.
Another set: by December, the probability of rates staying unchanged is just 11.4%; the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 62.3%, a 50-basis-point hike 24.3%, and a 75-basis-point hike 2.1%. The market has pushed the next round of rate hikes to the end of the year, making October’s pause look more like a window of room for them.
Two months, two different faces.
So don’t mistake October’s 82.3% for the outlook for the whole year—it’s just the figure for “October” in CME pricing, not a promise from the Fed.
#美联储10月维持利率概率升至82.3%
👉 我每天盯的价位清单、判断更正，都先发群里。进来对着看
One set of numbers: the probability of rates remaining unchanged in October is 82.3%. The market is treating this meeting as all but a foregone conclusion.
Another set: by December, the probability of rates staying unchanged is just 11.4%; the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 62.3%, a 50-basis-point hike 24.3%, and a 75-basis-point hike 2.1%. The market has pushed the next round of rate hikes to the end of the year, making October’s pause look more like a window of room for them.
Two months, two different faces.
So don’t mistake October’s 82.3% for the outlook for the whole year—it’s just the figure for “October” in CME pricing, not a promise from the Fed.
#美联储10月维持利率概率升至82.3%
