I have a bold view on where the crypto market is headed over the next six months:
There may be one last rally in October.
But starting in November and running through next March, I think it’s time to be cautious.
Why?
First, this cycle looks more like a small bull market than a super bull market.
Second, ETF inflows are continuing, but the pace of new inflows is slowing.
The real danger isn’t that ETFs run out of money. It’s that prices keep rising while ETF inflows fail to keep up.
Third, the Fed may raise interest rates.
One rate hike isn’t frightening on its own. The real concern is whether it could turn into a new cycle of sustained tightening.
Fourth, geopolitical risk.
If the U.S.-Iran conflict escalates further, oil prices could rise and push global inflation higher again, adding to the pressure on the Fed.
So here’s my scenario:
October — one last rally 📈
We could see a wave of FOMO, possibly even pushing the market to a new local high.
November through next March — choppy pullback 📉
The market starts to price in tighter liquidity, slowing inflows, and macro risks.
After next April — looking for opportunities again 📈
Of course, I’m not saying this is definitely how things will play out.
I’ll be watching three signals closely:
Are ETF funds seeing sustained outflows?
Will the Fed begin a series of consecutive rate hikes?
As BTC rises, can inflows and trading volume keep up?
If all three signals deteriorate at the same time,
then I’ll believe that:
October may be the final blowout of this market cycle.
So from here, for ordinary investors,
the most important thing isn’t guessing exactly where the top will be,
but rather:
Have the courage to participate when the market is doing well, and know when to step back when it gets carried away.
The hardest part of a bull market has never been making money.
It’s whether you can hold on to your profits once you’ve made them.
——Dahai, Investment Research
Investment thoughts for ordinary people! $BTC #bnb
There may be one last rally in October.
But starting in November and running through next March, I think it’s time to be cautious.
Why?
First, this cycle looks more like a small bull market than a super bull market.
Second, ETF inflows are continuing, but the pace of new inflows is slowing.
The real danger isn’t that ETFs run out of money. It’s that prices keep rising while ETF inflows fail to keep up.
Third, the Fed may raise interest rates.
One rate hike isn’t frightening on its own. The real concern is whether it could turn into a new cycle of sustained tightening.
Fourth, geopolitical risk.
If the U.S.-Iran conflict escalates further, oil prices could rise and push global inflation higher again, adding to the pressure on the Fed.
So here’s my scenario:
October — one last rally 📈
We could see a wave of FOMO, possibly even pushing the market to a new local high.
November through next March — choppy pullback 📉
The market starts to price in tighter liquidity, slowing inflows, and macro risks.
After next April — looking for opportunities again 📈
Of course, I’m not saying this is definitely how things will play out.
I’ll be watching three signals closely:
Are ETF funds seeing sustained outflows?
Will the Fed begin a series of consecutive rate hikes?
As BTC rises, can inflows and trading volume keep up?
If all three signals deteriorate at the same time,
then I’ll believe that:
October may be the final blowout of this market cycle.
So from here, for ordinary investors,
the most important thing isn’t guessing exactly where the top will be,
but rather:
Have the courage to participate when the market is doing well, and know when to step back when it gets carried away.
The hardest part of a bull market has never been making money.
It’s whether you can hold on to your profits once you’ve made them.
——Dahai, Investment Research
Investment thoughts for ordinary people! $BTC #bnb