【Crypto Market: The Rebound Is Continuing, but a Genuine Return of New Capital Remains to Be Confirmed】
The biggest change in the market right now is not simply that prices are rising, but that macroeconomic expectations are shifting.
Recent U.S. employment data has been weaker, and market expectations for another rate hike in October have fallen significantly. Binance Research data shows that the probability of an October rate hike has dropped from nearly 70% to below 30%. However, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains elevated, meaning liquidity conditions have not truly shifted toward easing.
In terms of fund flows, BTC remains clearly stronger than ETH. In late September, BTC spot ETFs saw several consecutive days of substantial inflows, but flows slowed significantly after October began. Meanwhile, U.S. spot ETH ETFs recorded net outflows of around $118 million last week. This indicates that institutional investors still have greater confidence in BTC than ETH, and the market has not yet entered a broad risk-on phase.
From a market-structure perspective, BTC is currently looking for support around $85,000, while the $87,000–$90,000 range remains a key resistance area. ETH, meanwhile, is trading mainly within a range of $2,650–$2,800. The current rebound has some support from capital flows and macroeconomic factors, but it is too early to conclude that a new one-way rally has been confirmed.
So, there are three things to focus on now:
1️⃣ Whether ETF flows return to sustained net inflows
2️⃣ Whether Treasury yields genuinely decline
3️⃣ Whether the October FOMC meeting minutes and the October 14 CPI report further reinforce expectations that rate hikes will stop
If these factors continue to improve, risk assets could have further room to rise. Conversely, if yields climb again and ETF flows continue to weaken, the rebound could easily give way to renewed range-bound trading.
At this stage, rather than blindly chasing the rally, it is better to focus on whether new capital is truly returning. Capital flows determine how high the market can go; macroeconomic conditions determine how long the rally can last.
$BTC $ETH
The biggest change in the market right now is not simply that prices are rising, but that macroeconomic expectations are shifting.
Recent U.S. employment data has been weaker, and market expectations for another rate hike in October have fallen significantly. Binance Research data shows that the probability of an October rate hike has dropped from nearly 70% to below 30%. However, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains elevated, meaning liquidity conditions have not truly shifted toward easing.
In terms of fund flows, BTC remains clearly stronger than ETH. In late September, BTC spot ETFs saw several consecutive days of substantial inflows, but flows slowed significantly after October began. Meanwhile, U.S. spot ETH ETFs recorded net outflows of around $118 million last week. This indicates that institutional investors still have greater confidence in BTC than ETH, and the market has not yet entered a broad risk-on phase.
From a market-structure perspective, BTC is currently looking for support around $85,000, while the $87,000–$90,000 range remains a key resistance area. ETH, meanwhile, is trading mainly within a range of $2,650–$2,800. The current rebound has some support from capital flows and macroeconomic factors, but it is too early to conclude that a new one-way rally has been confirmed.
So, there are three things to focus on now:
1️⃣ Whether ETF flows return to sustained net inflows
2️⃣ Whether Treasury yields genuinely decline
3️⃣ Whether the October FOMC meeting minutes and the October 14 CPI report further reinforce expectations that rate hikes will stop
If these factors continue to improve, risk assets could have further room to rise. Conversely, if yields climb again and ETF flows continue to weaken, the rebound could easily give way to renewed range-bound trading.
At this stage, rather than blindly chasing the rally, it is better to focus on whether new capital is truly returning. Capital flows determine how high the market can go; macroeconomic conditions determine how long the rally can last.
$BTC $ETH
