An 82.3% chance of no change in October; by December, the odds of a rate hike have reached 62.3%.
Both figures come from the same CME reading: an 82.3% probability that rates will remain unchanged in October, and a 62.3% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike by December. There’s little doubt about the near term, but expectations for later have already flipped—the only calm you can buy by holding rates steady lasts two months.
The direction is changing.
Like an umbrella opened before the rain has even fallen, the market has already shifted its view toward December.
Back to that 82.3% reading: it points to no change in October, not no change for the rest of the year.
#FedOctoberRateHoldProbabilityRisesTo82.3%
Both figures come from the same CME reading: an 82.3% probability that rates will remain unchanged in October, and a 62.3% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike by December. There’s little doubt about the near term, but expectations for later have already flipped—the only calm you can buy by holding rates steady lasts two months.
The direction is changing.
Like an umbrella opened before the rain has even fallen, the market has already shifted its view toward December.
Back to that 82.3% reading: it points to no change in October, not no change for the rest of the year.
#FedOctoberRateHoldProbabilityRisesTo82.3%
