Microsoft opened above the upper Bollinger Band, but I don’t think it’s overheated. This looks more like a box that’s been shut for two months finally opening for the first time.
The regular session had been open for just over twenty minutes: $MSFT 528.1, up 2.0% from Friday’s close of 517.53, with an intraday high of 532.35—a 60-trading-day high. The last premarket candle was still around 521. The first five-minute candle after the open saw 3 million shares traded, and volume in the first 25 minutes reached 5.56 million shares—already a quarter of the 20-day average of 21.25 million. The news: Melius upgraded the stock to Buy and raised its price target to 665.
Daily Bollinger Bands (20,2): middle band 503.1, upper band 523.3, lower band 482.9, %B=1.12, with the price above the upper band. More important is the bandwidth: in late September it compressed to 4.87%; on only about 7% of trading days over the past year was it narrower. At the time, the entire Bollinger Band was squeezed inside the Keltner Channel. At today’s open, bandwidth expanded to 8.02%, wider than the Keltner Channel (EMA20, ATR20×1.5; upper band 523.5, lower band 488.0). MACD (12,26,9): DIF 8.87, DEA 7.73, histogram +1.14. It only turned positive on 10/1, so momentum is just getting started.
Structurally, after the late-July earnings gap, the stock spent two months grinding within 486–518: a high of 513.73 on 8/10, a high of 517.78 on 8/28, and a low of 486 on 9/10. Today is the first time it has moved above the top of that range. Above that is last year’s 10/28 high of 553.72, just 4.6% away. If the daily close falls back below 517.8, this breakout will have failed.
At the same time, the 10-year Treasury yield is at 5.30%, $IWM is down 0.5%, and SPY is up just 0.1%. Money isn’t spreading out; it’s hiding in mega-caps.
Those calling it overextended are probably using July’s big post-earnings candle as their reference point. I’m looking at September’s month-long, tight-range slog. I don’t much care about the four-dollar drop from 532 to 528 intraday. How far it closes above 518 tonight matters much more than how high it surged at the open.
#美股 #微软 #TechnicalAnalysis
The regular session had been open for just over twenty minutes: $MSFT 528.1, up 2.0% from Friday’s close of 517.53, with an intraday high of 532.35—a 60-trading-day high. The last premarket candle was still around 521. The first five-minute candle after the open saw 3 million shares traded, and volume in the first 25 minutes reached 5.56 million shares—already a quarter of the 20-day average of 21.25 million. The news: Melius upgraded the stock to Buy and raised its price target to 665.
Daily Bollinger Bands (20,2): middle band 503.1, upper band 523.3, lower band 482.9, %B=1.12, with the price above the upper band. More important is the bandwidth: in late September it compressed to 4.87%; on only about 7% of trading days over the past year was it narrower. At the time, the entire Bollinger Band was squeezed inside the Keltner Channel. At today’s open, bandwidth expanded to 8.02%, wider than the Keltner Channel (EMA20, ATR20×1.5; upper band 523.5, lower band 488.0). MACD (12,26,9): DIF 8.87, DEA 7.73, histogram +1.14. It only turned positive on 10/1, so momentum is just getting started.
Structurally, after the late-July earnings gap, the stock spent two months grinding within 486–518: a high of 513.73 on 8/10, a high of 517.78 on 8/28, and a low of 486 on 9/10. Today is the first time it has moved above the top of that range. Above that is last year’s 10/28 high of 553.72, just 4.6% away. If the daily close falls back below 517.8, this breakout will have failed.
At the same time, the 10-year Treasury yield is at 5.30%, $IWM is down 0.5%, and SPY is up just 0.1%. Money isn’t spreading out; it’s hiding in mega-caps.
Those calling it overextended are probably using July’s big post-earnings candle as their reference point. I’m looking at September’s month-long, tight-range slog. I don’t much care about the four-dollar drop from 532 to 528 intraday. How far it closes above 518 tonight matters much more than how high it surged at the open.
#美股 #微软 #TechnicalAnalysis
